Good morning,


Corn is down 2, soybeans are down 3 and wheat is down 4 to start the day.


The USDA estimated 2024 U.S. corn plantings at 91.0 million acres in their Ag Forum commodity outlook this morning, down from 94.6 million acres in 2023; yields are initially seen at 181.0 bushels per acre with production at 15.040 billion bushels and carryout at 2.532 billion bu. Soybean acreage came in at 87.5 million ac, up from 83.6 million last year; yields are seen at 52.0 bushels per acre with output at 4.505 billion  bushels and carryout at 435 million bu. All-wheat acreage of 47.0 million would be down from 49.6 million acres in 2023, with yields there at 49.5 bushels per acre, production at 1.9 billion  bushels, and ending stocks at 769 million bushels for 2024/25.


Historically the trade doesn’t react too much to the Ag Forum numbers that are released as they are just a guess as to what we will really see. They may influence the March 29th planting intentions a little but ultimately it is what gets planted in April and May and what the yield is in October and November that matter. Historically these numbers are not too far off which means the tone is set for traders over the next couple of months. We are potentially looking at a 2.5+ billion-bushel carryout in corn! That screams sub $4.50 corn to me. Times have changed, but the last time we saw a carryout that high (2005 we had a 2.54 billion bushel) we had the average on farm cash price around $2.05! I don’t think we go to that level, but sub $4 is in the cards for this coming fall if something dramatic doesn’t change.



Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard