Good Morning,


Weaker markets to open the day with corn currently down 4 and soybeans down 6. Markets have rebounded from the overnight session that saw corn down 10 and soybeans down 20+.

Many factors added to the selloff in prices yesterday; first notice day liquidation, a model change in weather and weak exports across the whole host of commodities. Any kind of change can cause a purge of the longs.  I expect more opportunities moving forward, but the volatility will continue throughout the year.


The South American weather forecast has flip flopped from yesterday’s wet weather in Southern Brazil and Argentina.  This is not the first or last time that model has or will do this. Today’s forecast doesn’t matter, other than it is back to bullish.  What will matter is if the rain is on for next week this Sunday night.  Forecasts are for rain to get moved back a bit and will show up in the 11-15 day period instead.  Temps will remain high is Southern Brazil and Argentina until there is a break down of the ridge.

Us weather looks favorable for crops. Kansas City Based World Weather Inc released the following information yesterday.

“Temperatures will be trending unusually warm across much of the U.S. Plains and into Canada’s Prairies during the first week of March. Temperature anomalies will become above to, in some areas, well above average. The warmth will reduce snowpack and raise soil temperatures bringing more wheat in the southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states out of dormancy and help lift soil temperatures enough in the southern states to support some spring planting and germination. Cooling is a possibility after the first week of March; though, there is uncertainty as to how much cooling occurs and exactly what areas will be impacted.”



Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard