Good Morning,
Markets are 2 higher in corn, 10 higher in soybeans and 7 higher in wheat to open the day. Crude oil is up 40 and US stocks are up 130. The 1.9 trillion dollar aid package passed the US Senate dropping the dollar and sending stocks higher.
The corn fund position is still holding up toward record long with a crop report coming next Tuesday. The bean position is long but nowhere near what it was when we were 14.40 futures. The wheat position is slightly short, which is signaling a low for the week. After yesterdays close the funds were long 380,000 corn, 157,000 soybean and 60,000 wheat contracts.
China’s Veterinary Association did confirm that a strain of African Swine Flu was found this week. They do not expect damage to the growing hog industry as the strain is not as deadly as the previous strain.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered the corn crop estimate for Argentina to 46 mmt which is equal to their soybean crop at 46 mmt. They are saying that the soybean crop is 19 percent good to excellent vs 65 last year and corn at 24 percent good to excellent vs 59 last year. These are the worst condition ratings we have seen posted for the Argentina crop. The Southern Argentina corn bean crop are probably going to show much worse yields than expected come harvest.
We only have a couple trading sessions before the USDA release the February crop report. The trade looks for US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu vs USDA 1,552, soybean 123 vs 140 and wheat 834 vs 836. After all the sales made to China in the last month, the USDA is going to want to reduce carryout and raise exports. The recent corn sale would take out 300 million bushels of carryout that was done just in the last week.
Have a safe day and stay warm!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
