Good morning,


Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 4 and soybeans down 9.


Tomorrow morning the USDA will release its February WASDE report. Historically this in an uneventful report as traders watch South American harvest numbers and shift their attention to the US planting season and the March 31st acreage and stocks report. US stocks are expected to increase due to lagging exports and lower ethanol usage of corn.

The USDA is expected to decrease the Argentina crop in soybeans and corn. More than half of the corn and bean crop was planted late in Argentina this year, so improved rain can stabilize to increase yields.


Past that, new-crop corn and soybean values are both strong heading into 2023, but that key SX/CZ ratio is still lingering near the bottom of its usual range at this point in the year; U.S. farmers will be itching to plant corn at $6 per bushel and with fertilizer prices now depressed. For now, the grain markets are mixed heading into the report, with soybeans generally acting as the buoy due to stronger usage and tighter ongoing stocks, ratcheting only slightly lower off recent move highs this month.


USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

  USDA FEB Average Est. USDA JAN
Corn   1.266 1.242
Soybeans   .211 .210
Wheat   .576 .567


USDA 2022/23 South American Production (million tonnes)

  USDA FEB Average Est. USDA JAN
Argentina Corn   48.50 52.00
Argentina Beans   42.34 45.50
Brazil Corn   125.18 125.00
Brazil Beans   153.01 153.00


USDA World 2022/23 Carryout (million tonnes)

  USDA FEB Average Est. USDA JAN
Corn   294.71 296.42
Soybeans   102.03 103.52
Wheat   268.56 268.39



Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard