Good morning,
All commodities are quiet this morning ahead of the 11am WASDE report. Guesses for todays report are listed below.
USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA FEB | Average Est. | USDA JAN | |
| Corn | 1.267 | 1.266 | 1.242 |
| Soybeans | .225 | .211 | .210 |
| Wheat | .568 | .576 | .567 |
USDA 2022/23 South American Production (million tonnes)
| USDA FEB | Average Est. | USDA JAN | |
| Argentina Corn | 47.00 | 48.50 | 52.00 |
| Argentina Beans | 41.00 | 42.34 | 45.50 |
| Brazil Corn | 125.00 | 125.18 | 125.00 |
| Brazil Beans | 153.00 | 153.01 | 153.00 |
USDA World 2022/23 Carryout (million tonnes)
| USDA FEB | Average Est. | USDA JAN | |
| Corn | 295.28 | 294.71 | 296.42 |
| Soybeans | 102.03 | 102.03 | 103.52 |
| Wheat | 269.34 | 268.56 | 268.39 |
The USD Report is today at 11:00 central time. Cuts to South American production are expected and not a lot else. This is normally not much of a market mover, and we expect the same today.
There was another pop-up thunderstorm in Argentina last night producing .1-.8 inches of rain in Southern Cordoba and Buenos Aries. Conditions will be hot and dry for the next few days before rain sets in this weekend. Rain will fall into next Wednesday with totals of .5-2.0 inches. Temperatures will also be cooler into next week. There is another period of dryness after this storm and then another move to wetter in the extended model. The forecast has definitely changed as Argentina is seeing regular rains.
Brazil cut their official second-crop corn production estimate from 96.2 to 94.9 MMT due to a slow early soybean harvest and subsequent corn planting delays. Corn planting progress stands at 12%.
The USDA is expected to decrease the Argentina crop in soybeans down 3 mmt to 42.5 mmt and corn down 2-3 mmt at 48-49 mmt. More than half of the corn and bean crop was planted late in Argentina this year, so improved rain could stabilize or increase yields. Most are penciling in a loss of 10 plus mmts.
The rest of the changes by the USDA should be minimal. My guess is that corn exports come in lower and most other categories stay about the same. The forecast for rain and cooler temperatures will hold any rally back today in soybeans. Meaning we can rally today but think it fails by the weekend as good rain coverage comes to Southern Brazil and Argentina.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
