Good morning,


Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 15 to start the day ahead of the USDA report.


This morning Conab cut their official 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 155.2 to 149.4 MMT, with corn down from 117.6 to 113.7 MMT; second crop corn output fell from 91.2 to 88.1 MMT this month.

The USDA will release their February numbers at 11:00 am. Estimates are listed below.
 USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA Feb Average Trade Est. USDA Jan
Corn 2.172 2.146 2.162
Soybeans .315 .284 .280
Wheat .658 .647 .648


USDA 2023/24 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA Feb Average Trade Est. USDA Jan
Corn 322.06 324.02 325.22
Soybeans 116.03 112.48 114.60
Wheat 259.44 260.48 260.03


USDA 2023/24 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

USDA Feb Average Trade Est. USDA Jan
ARG Corn 55.00 55.59 55.00
ARG Soybeans 50.00 50.84 50.00
Brazil Corn 124.00 124.32 127.00
Brazil Soybeans 156.00 153.15 157.00


Conab came out lesser Brazilian corn and bean crops, now it’s up to the USDA next at 11:00 today.  Will the adjustments be minor, or will they make the larger cut in Brazilian crops?  Harvest data suggest the crop is down 15% in Mato Grosso and Parana in both corn and beans.  US balance sheets will go mostly unchanged.  Corn exports have been strong, and beans are on the losing pace in exports predicted.  Crush is ahead of pace for soybeans, so it unlikely the carryout grows today.  This report is usually not a big one and the markets are already down heading into it in very oversold conditions, especially corn.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard