Good Morning,


Mixed markets overnight as old corn was up 1 and new corn down 1. Soybeans were up 11. USDA stocks report will be released at 11am today and all estimates are for lower carryout in corn and soybeans. I believe yesterdays strength was positioning ahead of todays report.

The Russian Government signed off the export duty that will start on June 2nd.  The tax will be 70% above the export price base of 200 dollars per metric tonne.

According to agribusiness consultancy AgRural, as of Feb. 4, Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week. Yet harvesting is still way behind historical averages for this time of the season. Last year, farmers had reaped 16% of the cultivated area at around this time. Because of planting delays and the rains that have recently disrupted work in top grain states like Mato Grosso, the pace of harvesting is the slowest in 10 years.
USDA is expected to estimate US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu versus 1,552 last month.  USDA is expected to estimate US soybean carryout near 123 mil bu versus 140 last month.  USDA is expected to estimate US wheat carryout near 834 mil bu versus 836 last month.  The Brazilian corn crop is expected to be 108.4 mmt and beans at 132.4.  The Argentina corn crop is expected to be 47 mmt and beans at 47.6 mmt.  China corn imports are expected to be 20 mmt for corn and 101 mmt for beans.

The last crop report came in very close to pre-trade estimates, and this one will very much be the same.  The record exports are easy for the USDA to quantify as shipments have been keeping up with the pace of sales.  The USDA is unlikely to change much to the Brazilian and Argentina crops until more is know from harvest.  This isn’t really a very big or import report here today.  The more volatile one is the planted acres at the end of March, which will have record corn acres.

February 2020/21 US Ending Stocks (bil bu.)

USDA Feb Ave. Est USDA Jan
Corn 1.502 1.392 1.552
Soybeans .120 .123 .140
Wheat .836 .834 .836


February 2020/21 World Ending Stocks (mil. Metric tons)

USDA Feb Ave. Est. USDA Jan
Corn 286.53 279.79 283.83
Soybeans 83.36 83.30 84.31
Wheat 304.22 312.86 313.19




Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard