Good morning,
Report Day!
We have seen a lot of volatility since last years January WASDE report that has pushed corn and soybeans prices to record levels. As COVID concerns continue, South American weather uncertainty and global demand unknown today’s report could push or pull the market in unexpected and violent ways. My opinion is that we will see higher production that should mostly be offset by domestic demand from Q4, but that is just an opinion, and I would suggest heading into this report on the safe side. Safe meaning a good portion of old and new crop sales locked in at present levels with offers for additional sales if we see algorithm trading kick in right after the report.
Here are todays estimates. Final numbers will be updated shortly after the 11:00 am release.
USDA 2021 Harvested Acres (Mln Acres)
| USDA Jan. 2022 | Ave. Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2021 | |
| Corn | 85.400 | 85.186 | 85.085 |
| Soybeans | 86.300 | 86.447 | 86.436 |
USDA 2021 Yield (Bushels per acre)
| USDA Jan. 2022 | Ave. Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2021 | |
| Corn | 177.0 | 177.0 | 177.0 |
| Soybeans | 51.4 | 51.3 | 51.2 |
USDA 2021 Production (Billion Bushels
| USDA Jan. 2022 | Ave. Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2021 | |
| Corn | 15.115 | 15.069 | 15.062 |
| Soybeans | 4.435 | 4.433 | 4.425 |
USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA Jan. 2022 | Ave. Trade Est. | USDA Dec. 2021 | |
| Corn | 1.54 | 1.449 | 1.493 |
| Soybeans | .350 | .347 | .340 |
| Wheat | .628 | .607 | .583 |
Today’s carryout will set the bar and give us direction moving forward. Any surprising numbers in today’s report will most likely be traded today and tomorrow before we resume trading South American weather.
Have a Safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
