Good morning,

Report Day!

We have seen a lot of volatility since last years January WASDE report that has pushed corn and soybeans prices to record levels. As COVID concerns continue, South American weather uncertainty and global demand unknown today’s report could push or pull the market in unexpected and violent ways. My opinion is that we will see higher production that should mostly be offset by domestic demand from Q4, but that is just an opinion, and I would suggest heading into this report on the safe side. Safe meaning a good portion of old and new crop sales locked in at present levels with offers for additional sales if we see algorithm trading kick in right after the report.

Here are todays estimates. Final numbers will be updated shortly after the 11:00 am release.

USDA 2021 Harvested Acres (Mln Acres)

USDA Jan. 2022 Ave. Trade Est. USDA Nov. 2021
Corn 85.400 85.186 85.085
Soybeans 86.300 86.447 86.436


USDA 2021 Yield (Bushels per acre)

USDA Jan. 2022 Ave. Trade Est. USDA Nov. 2021
Corn 177.0 177.0 177.0
Soybeans 51.4 51.3 51.2


USDA 2021 Production (Billion Bushels

USDA Jan. 2022 Ave. Trade Est. USDA Nov. 2021
Corn 15.115 15.069 15.062
Soybeans 4.435 4.433 4.425


USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA Jan. 2022 Ave. Trade Est. USDA Dec. 2021
Corn 1.54 1.449 1.493
Soybeans .350 .347 .340
Wheat .628 .607 .583



Today’s carryout will set the bar and give us direction moving forward. Any surprising numbers in today’s report will most likely be traded today and tomorrow before we resume trading South American weather.


Have a Safe day!


Garry Gard