Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 2 in the nearby and down 2 in the deferred. Soybeans are down 13 across the board.

Rains are coming to Central and Southern Argentina in the next 10 days.  The forecast holds rain for both short-term and long-term models.  The hot air mass is expected to break up in the next week, allowing for this forecast change.  Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina stay mostly dry with lighter showers developing later next week.  The long-range forecast has rain moving into this area, but coverage is probably 60-70 percent.  Cooler temps should be on the way with the more active weather pattern bringing rain.  The early season corn and soybeans have been badly hurt and much cannot be repaired.  The other half, the later season corn, and beans, would have a chance at least. The forecast looks different from the past few weeks and is not nearly as bullish.  We’ll see Monday morning when the trade returns if any of this changes.

Rumors of China new crop corn buying to placate the Biden Administrations “pressure” tied to the Phase 1 deal today. The rumored amounts were less than any prior ceremonial amounts of the past so probably why they didn’t move the needle in the market. China is already well behind its shipment pace for the US which is a far greater concern of the market than 1.5 mmt 10 months from today.

Ukraine and Russian issues will continue to be monitored as any military conflict would disrupt sales and shipments from the Ukraine and increase US exports.

Have a Safe weekend!


Garry Gard