Good morning,


The selloff continues this morning with corn down 15 and soybeans down 38 to start the day.


Yesterday’s report was pretty much in line with the average trade guesses except for soybean acres.

USDA Quarterly Stocks (Billion Bushel)

June 2022 Average Estimate June 2021 March 2022
Corn 4.346 4.343 4.111 7.850
Soybeans .971 .965 .769 1.931
Wheat .660 .655 .845 1.025


USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

June 2022 Average Estimate March 2022 2021 Final
Corn 89.921 89.961 89.49 93.357
Soybeans 88.325 90.466 90.955 87.195
Wheat 47.092 47.017 47.351 46.703


The Stocks came in about as on the nose as they possibly could.  Exports have been limited while feed, ethanol and crush have been strong.  This was about the closest to the numbers for a June report that I can remember.  Unfortunately, this did not keep the market from totally liquidating their positions.  The funds are net long just over 200k contracts after yesterday’s selloff. The last time they were this low was October 13, 2021. The last time they were long less than 200k contracts was September 21, 2021. I look for us to break that 200 mark easily today.


The weather forecast is a little bearish and think there were a lot of bets still in the market for the report.  Sometimes these reports are trend changers and others they are more of a one-off event.  We won’t know that until July 5th when traders return from their holiday weekend and shift their focus to weather. Unfortunately, the highs appear to be in for the year and anyone sitting on old crop corn is going to have to be content selling $7 corn instead of $8. (how strange does that sound “settle for $7 corn”)


Have a safe weekend!


Garry Gard