Good morning,
Markets are higher to start the week with corn up 5 and soybeans up 28.
December corn is stabilizing around 5 dollars as prices are deep into crop insurance revenue territory. Additional acres will be added on Wednesday, but yield is likely to come down from the record yield forecast by the USDA.
The forecast models had been adding rain into Iowa/Minnesota a few times last week, but not much has materialized. Rain totals in the last 10 days for Illinois have been as much as 5-6 inches in areas.
Crop ratings are expected to increase by 1-3 percent in the good to excellent for corn and beans this afternoon. Illinois did accumulate some heavy rain totals over the last 10 days, where Iowa/Minnesota were much lighter.
On Wednesday the USDA will have a chance to amend its Supply and Demand numbers in their July crop production report. We should see an increase in feeding and a cut in exports. Ethanol is due for a cut, but the USDA has fought revisions in that category most of the season. Historically the USDA has not adjusted yield in the July report but given the drought conditions we have experienced I would not be surprised to see an adjustment next week. An adjustment to 175-176 bushels per acre would be in line with what the trade is expecting. With the increase in planted acres this spring, we could drop yield to 168 bushels per acre and still see a 1.4-billion-bushel carryout next year. Below are the early estimates for Wednesday.
USDA 2022/23 Carryout (billion bu)
| USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 1.420 | 1.452 | |
| Soybeans | .232 | .230 |
USDA 2023 Yield (bushels/acre)
| USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 176.6 | 181.5 | |
| Soybeans | 51.4 | 52.0 |
USDA 2023 Production (billion bu)
| USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 15.234 | 15.265 | |
| Soybeans | 4.253 | 4.510 |
USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bu)
| USDA July 2023 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 2.260 | 2.257 | |
| Soybeans | .199 | .350 | |
| Wheat | .569 | .562 |
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
