Good Morning,
Volume and trade action slowed through the overnight of trade as traders are waiting to see the USDA report that is set to be released at 11 a.m. The markets have consolidated over the course of the last 24 hours and corn and soybeans are currently down a cent this morning. Typically, the July WASDE report is a quiet one as the USDA adopts the June acreage number and leaves yield unchanged. With this year being a non-typical one, it will be interesting to see if the USDA breaks its normal tendencies and makes bigger changes to the supply side of the equation than in years past. This is impossible to know prior to the data being released and leaves the market susceptible to a surprise in trade this afternoon. However, market analysts have predicted what the numbers on the report could be and are as follows:
USDA 2019-20 corn and soybean production:
USDA July 2019-20 Estimate Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ Estimates USDA June Estimate
Corn Production 13.875 13.664 13.100 – 13.960 13.680
Corn Yield 166 165 162 – 167 166
Soy Production 3.845 3.883 3.738 – 4.100 4.150
Soy Yield 48.5 48.6 47 – 51 49.5
USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks:
USDA July 2018-19 end-stocks estimates Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ estimates USDA June 2018-19 end-stocks estimates
Corn 2.340 2.197 2.065 – 2.295 2.195
Soybeans 1.050 1.044 0.935 – 1.137 1.070
USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks:
USDA July 2019-20 end-stocks estimates Average of analysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ estimates USDA June 2018-19 end-stock estimates
Corn 2.010 1.692 1.450 – 1.975 1.675
Soybeans 0.795 0.812 0.558 – 1.040 1.045
The numbers that analysts are predicting set the tone for more of a bearish response in the corn market and more of a bullish response in the soybeans market. Though the initial reaction to the report may be sharp, I think the markets will shift their attention back to the weather and keep eyes on extended forecasts.
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
