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Good morning,

 

Corn and soybeans are both up 6 to start the day.

 

The markets have been tough lately from a producer’s perspective. As the crop marches forward and continues to look better and better, the markets seem to be weeks ahead and projecting a very big yield. Rains in the Midwest have the Funds convinced of above trendline yields and burdensome stocks coming this fall. With the funds position sitting at record short positions, it doesn’t appear that they are going to move things higher unless we harvest a significantly smaller crop. Unfortunately, if that does come to fruition, it won’t be seen in the markets until early Q1.

 

Corn condition ratings jumped to 68% G/E on Monday which was 6% above the five-year average and 13% above last year.

 

Demand for US corn has been lagging for some time and low prices are struggling to spark new demand. Corn demand this year is the 3rd largest over the past 5 years which isn’t terrible, but the markets perception is that it is going to get worse due to Chinese demand. China is far behind on purchases from the US.

 

Fridays USDA report estimates are listed below.

 

USDA 2023/24 US Carryout (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   2.022 2.049
Soybeans   .350 .355

 

 

USDA 2024 US Yield (bushels per acre)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   181.0 180.8
Soybeans   52.0 51.9

 

 

USDA 2024 Production (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   14.860 15.063
Soybeans   4.450 4.424

 

 

USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)

  USDA July USDA June Average Trade Est.
Corn   2.102 2.312
Soybeans   .455 .449
Wheat   .758 .788

 

If realized, the above numbers would most likely move the markets lower tomorrow. I would advise producers to get old crop sales and new crop sales on the books ahead of this report.

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com