USDA Supply and Demand report out at 11am this morning. The average corn yield estimate of 174.9 bu/acre may be low given how good the Good/Excellent ratings have been recently (10% higher than last year). Despite the great ratings I would expect the government to be conservative in this report and make bigger adjustments in the August report when we get a state by state breakdown. Today’s estimates are attached below.
Weekly exports were soft again for the week ending 7/5/18 with corn at 15.8 million bu.(13 million below the 10 week average) Soybeans were the worst in the last 8 weeks at 4.7 million bu.(6 million below the 10 week average). I do not see last week’s lower export numbers as a big surprise as it was a shortened week due to the 4th of July. I would also expect we will see these numbers continue to be low as we near the end of the old crop marketing season. New crop sales for both corn and beans were below their 10 week average, but as US prices continue to fall we are becoming much more competitive in the world market despite the tariffs.(review my commentary from Monday)
Despite the dry weather locally, the US drought monitor has gotten better for the upper Midwest over the last week while areas in Missouri and Kansas have gotten worse.
|July 12th||Estimates||June Report|
|US Stocks 2017-18||2.027||2.107||2.102|
|US Stocks 2018-19||1.552||1.712||1.577|
|US Stocks 2017-18||.465||.507||.505|
|US Stocks 2018-19||.580||.471||.385|
Have a Safe Day!