Markets are weaker to start the day with corn and beans down 1-2 and wheat down 3. Shortened trading today as the markets will close at noon. There will be no markets on Friday.
The USDA provided a ray of hope to farmers (at least temporarily) with Tuesdays report. Often these reports squash and rally, but this time they reversed course and gave farmers a marketing opportunity. The data from Tuesday suggested that PP enrollment was nearly half of what it was in 2019, so don’t be too surprised if NASS suddenly decides to put back in 1-2 million corn/bean acres on future reports in the August report and beyond. As I stated in yesterday’s comments, there are a lot of big questions in their numbers and producers should be actively selling before they get corrected.
With crops now entering their reproductive stages, the next 6 weeks are going to be all about the weather. The weather models are struggling to come up with a consensus on an outlook, but the EU model positions the high pressure ridge (HPR) further west keeping high temps not quite as warm as the GFS would indicate. Additionally the forecasts have had a difficult time predicting where the convective thunderstorms will pop up. If weather and forecasts over the weekend show rain and moderate temps come Monday, this market could begin to give back the last few day’s gains. If not we could see a little more premium as the Funds exit short positions.
Have a Happy Fourth of July!