Good Morning,

Softer markets to open the day with corn down 9 and soybeans down 30.

The markets are reacting to a wetter forecast coming from the European model for the August 4-9th timeframe. The GFS model continues to hold a drier trend for the same period and the conditions leading up to this potential rain event could be detrimental to yields. The models disagree this morning for rain coming at the back end of the 11–15-day forecast.  The EU forecast which is released after settlement started the markets lower from the onset of the overnight trade.  The GFS doesn’t follow this solution and has little rain for the next 15 days.

The 10-day forecast by the EU is not very wet, but does have rain chances for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  This is probably adding to the break.  Extreme heat will come to the US over the next 7 days and will be the hottest temps of the Summer.  We have seen this before; the market breaks just as the heat is about to show up driving weak longs out.  These weather markets can be nasty, and we don’t trade up or down a nickel anymore.

USDA export sales are out, and they have the US selling 473,200 mt of wheat, 88,500 mt of old corn, 1,003,500 mt of new corn, 62,000 mt old beans, and 176,300 mt of new beans.  China has almost no coverage of new crop beans but did add 526,000 mt of new corn.


Have a safe day!

Garry Gard