After coming off a pretty bearish week last week, the grain markets are finding a bit of support to start the new week of trade. Corn is currently up 3 cents and soybeans are up 5 cents. I believe the markets are reacting to weather models that show a dry week ahead for much of the U.S. growing region. Weekend rains fell in the central/northern Corn Belt over the weekend, with some heavier amounts on the MO/IA border and eastern SD into northern MN and WI. There are currently rains moving across the southern and eastern Corn Belt this morning. However, weather forecasts are predicting we won’t see the rains return until we get 6-10 days down the road. The U.S. – China trade talks are set to resume this week, although expectations for a trade deal to be made anytime soon still remains low. The USDA will release the weekly crop condition report this afternoon at 3 p.m. Analysts are expecting the corn condition rating to come in at 56% GTE (57% GTE last week, 70.5% 5-year average) and the soybean condition is expected to come in at 53% GTE (54% GTE last week, 67% 5-year average). It will be interesting to see where the weekly condition ratings end up. Traders will definitely pay attention to the release of the new numbers this afternoon trying to get a better indication where yield is going to end up. However, I don’t believe the weekly condition report will have a huge effect on trade, it seems like traders are waiting to base their decision on this year’s crop after they see the August report. Ultimately, I don’t believe there will be any big news to come this week. Traders will definitely keep an eye on the trade talks even though much isn’t expected to happen. Also, I believe traders will continue to keep a close eye on the weather as it seems to be the biggest driver of prices as the moment.
Have a great day!