Significantly stronger markets this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20 to start the day. Reports from Bloomberg that the US and China are going to resume trade talks has traders optimistic that demand will resurface sooner rather than later for beans. Some added heat in the forecast could add to worries in parts of IA and MO, but may be welcome for the rest of the Midwest as heat could add to the test weight.
Last nights crop conditions report showed corn unchanged at 72% G/E, but I view this number as misleading. Corn conditions dropped in every state except MN, SD, CO, TX, PA and NC. Of those, only MN and SD produce any volume of corn. The worst state continues to be MO which came in at 33% G/E. WI dropped 2% to 81% G/E. Soybeans were similar with the US ratings unchanged at 70% G/E. The only states to increase were SD, IA, MS, NC. MO is also the lowest here at 40% G/E.
Corn has traded higher 11 of the last 12 days with today’s rally. The funds bought 6000 sb and 7000 corn contract yesterday. They are estimated to be short 133k corn and 63k soybeans. With today being month end I would expect to see more buying as traders cover their shorts. Do not be surprised if we see some retracement tomorrow with the beginning of the month.
Producers should be putting in firm offers for new crop (fall/spring and next summer delivery). I would target the following levels for sales:
Fall Delivery – $3.65-3.75
Spring 2019 Delivery – $3.80-3.90
Summer 2019 Delivery – $3.90-4.00
Have a Safe Day!