The markets will open at 8:30 am this morning after a shortened trade on Tuesday and 4th of July holiday. Some look for a higher corn and wheat open due to ongoing talk of lower World 2018/19 supplies. Still the dominate factor is the trade wars with US and China, EU, Canada and Mexico. Deadlines for US tariffs on China are tomorrow. China has said they will retaliate immediately with tariffs of their own if this is not resolved. This could offer resistance to grains especially soybeans.
North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and parts of Iowa saw rains yesterday. Precipitation appears to be light for the next 7-10 days across the major growing regions while temperatures are expected to moderate with highs mainly in the 80’s. The chances of any premiums being added to the markets from weather are becoming unlikely this late in the game.
Producers should have firm offers in for old crop slightly above the current levels. $3.30-3.40 range would be my target. New crop offers should be handled very similar with offers in the $3.40-3.50 range for fall delivery. I would not recommend any sales for next spring and summer at this time in hopes that our political issues can be resolved by that time. Over the last 10 years, 90% of the time the December futures have traded higher than the current level. Over the last 5 years it has traded higher 84% of the time. I feel that fundamentally we are trading 25-30 cents below where the market should be due to trade wars.
Have a Safe Day!