Markets have opened lower this morning after Wednesdays big run up that was led by acreage talks, yield discussions, opinions on weather forecasts and a shortened week of trading. There will not be a lot of traders in the markets today as many exited the markets at noon on Wednesday for an extended holiday break.
The weather forecast for the next 14 days looks mostly dry which is a big change from the past month. There is a ridge building next week that will last for almost 14 days bringing drier and warmer temps. Fortunately the majority of the heat will be in the Southern US away from the major growing areas.
Weekly exports for the week show corn at 6.9 million bu. which is down from the 10 week average of 13.6 million. US corn exports are 350 million bushels below last years pace for this same timeframe. These export numbers should not come as a surprise as US corn compared to Brazilian corn delivered to Mexico and Japan is between .20 and .70 cents/bu. more expensive. This also helps explain why southern end users in the US (Poultry/Cattle) are importing corn from South America at cheaper rates than they can buy US corn.
Corn is currently down 5 and soybeans are down 13.
My advice to producers is to continue to take advantage of the great markets we have seen over the last month. Basis levels across the US have strengthened for old crop and the CBOT seems to have found a stable trading range. The late planted corn and lack of acres have already been traded for the most part and this market is not going to keep running higher despite what some may think should happen. At the very least you should have firm offers in on old and new crop corn with your buyers. Producers should also be making sales for the 2020 crop as I do not expect prices to be at the current levels a year from now when we have 5-10 million more corn acres in the ground.
Have a Safe Day!