Corn and soybeans are starting the month off with a Bang! Corn is up 35 and soybeans are up 45 early this morning.
Rumors, facts, and more rumors seem to move the market day to day. Last week there was talk of China cancelling old crop purchases that pushed the markets lower. This lower trade resulted in them buying more old and new crop corn. Today the talk is that China is going to be loading out almost all the old crop corn we owe them.
This afternoon’s planting progress is expected to be 97% complete compared to 88% on average. Crop ratings are expected to be rated 70% Good/Excellent. While it is still very early, if we do see a 70% G/E, this would be a good indicator as to where the final yield will be. In 11 of the 15 years where the first crop rating was 70% or higher, the final yield was above the USDA’s May estimate. This years May estimate was 179.5 bpa.
In my opinion US weather is not bullish at this point. We have adequate rain across most of the Midwest with warming temperatures that will move the crop along. Last week’s lower temperatures/frost affected very few acres. There will be some replanting taking place in the northern states, but that is very minimal.
Have a Safe Day!