June 11, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets were weaker overnight and look to trade lower this morning following last nights planting progress report. Weather last Thursday thru Sunday allowed more field work in IL, IN and OH than had been anticipated. Last nights planting progress had the nation at 83% complete compared to 67% last week. WI jumped to 78% from 58% last week. IL, IN and OH increased by 28, 36 and 17% respectively. Planting will soon be a non-issue as time will have run out, most likely at the end of this week and the forecast looks like there will be plenty accomplished this week.
USDA will issue their new US and World supply and demand numbers at 11am today.(estimates below) Most do not look for many changes in soybeans and wheat. The USDA could lower exports in all three commodities. The big unknown is what will the USDA do to US corn acres and yield. They should be lower due to the wet spring. This should lower US and World carryout, but will it be enough to push prices higher is unknown with many traders already anticipating less acres and lower yield.
USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said as his agency will have more details on how it plans to dole out the $16 billion to farmers and others in the coming weeks and urges growers to “plant what works best on your farm.”

USDA 2019-20 Corn and Soybean Production (billion bu/bpa)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Corn Production 13.680 14.251 15.030
Corn Yield 166.0 172.4 176.0
Soybean Production 4.15 4.123 4.15
Soybean Yield 49.5 49.0 49.5

USDA 2018-19 U.S. ending stocks (billion bu)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Wheat 1.102 1.121 1.127
Corn 2.195 2.123 2.095
Soybeans 1.070 1.004 .995

USDA 2019-20 U.S. ending stocks (billion bu)
June Est. Average Est. May Est.
Wheat 1.072 1.118 1.141
Corn 1.675 1.917 2.485
Soybeans 1.045 .983 .970

The run up in the markets over the last couple weeks resulted in a lot of corn and beans getting priced at profitable levels. As usual, the best prices were locked in by producers that had “Firm Offers” in place. Now that spring field work is coming to an end, producers should be looking to put their next level of offers in with their buyers. If possible, I would advise having your offers in prior to today’s report to capture any short electronic rally that this report may offer.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard