The markets are softer this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans down 7. Yesterday’s rally quickly faded as we moved through the day as rain fell in the upper Midwest.
Weather models have heavy rains the Western Plains and, in the South, leaving the Central US in a drier trend. The placement of a dome in Canada moving East has pushed moisture around the edge of the dome. The EU model shows better chances for rain in Illinois this morning that so far have not materialized. Iowa and Minnesota look to remain dry. Temps are still average at best lowering crop stress in dry areas.
Brazilian government supply agency Conab yesterday left their 2022/23 soybean production estimate at 155.7 MMT, up 24% from last year, with corn at 125.7 MMT, up from 125.5 MMT previously and up 11% year-over-year. Second-crop output rose from 96.1 to 96.3 MMT this month—that compares to 85.8 MMT in the 2021/22 cycle.
The EPA on Growth Energy will be granted a one-week delay in announcing Renewable Fuel Obligations until June 21st. A presentation was given to Biden yesterday arguing for higher biofuel mandate proposals.
The market is at an impasse waiting to see further into June weather. The markets are closed on Monday making a risky three-day weekend ahead. Market volatility will remain heightened and trade aggressively on model changes.
Continue to make sales on rallies of both old and new crop corn. As I stated yesterday, weather rallies can end quicker than you can make a phone call, so you don’t want to hang out too long. With every day that passes, we are that much closer to new crop corn hitting the pipeline.
Have a Safe Day!