Good morning,

Stronger markets in corn and wheat to open the day as they trade 9 and 3 higher, respectively. Soybeans are currently down 3.

US weather has some rain in the forecast starting this weekend. A tropical storm is moving into the Gulf and should make landfall in New Orleans. Heat and dryness persist out in the Plains and all the way West. The forecast does not have any rain West of Iowa/Minnesota and the heat will linger into the end of the month. Conditions are as bad out West as the 2012 drought was for the Central Midwest. Crops are really going to suffer.
Central US weather is a mix between the models this morning. The GFS has significant rain falling in parts of Iowa, but most of that is to the East where the Tropical storm is expected to kick the ridge West and let moisture move North into the Midwest. The GFS has rain going from New Orleans to Wisconsin on this run. The EU model has none of this, the moisture is blocked out North of Kentucky. Iowa, Illinois and even Missouri get shortchanged on this rain event. These models are very different, and we cannot guess which one is correct. It’s probably some of both in the end. After this tropical storm moves through, the ridge comes back East bringing hotter temps and a return to the same Hot/dry pattern. If this rain is a miss, we will immediately rally prices up to the gaps left early this week.
Chinese state grain company, Sinograin, will auction off corn shipments it imported from Ukraine earlier this month to help ease high grain prices across the country amid tightening supplies and rising fears about inflation. Sinograin will sell 1.5 million bushels of corn on Friday, marking the second sale this month by the state-owned trading company as well as the first state corn import sales in years.
China’s premier pledged to farmers that the government will act to prevent excessive falls in local corn prices to protect grower incomes and ensure they can manage rising costs of fertilizer and land rent. (don’t see this support in the US)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard