Markets were mixed early this morning. Corn was higher overnight but opened 4 lower this morning. At the time of this writing, we are unchanged in corn and down 5 in soybeans.
There is some flip flopping of the models from wet on the Euro yesterday to dry on the Euro this morning. The private forecaster that I watch says there will be a change coming at the end of the month as things look to turn slightly wetter. The markets were extremely overbought last night triggering obvious sell signals.
To get through the trendline the Funds had to go long corn and they did that last week. We saw a major shift in position over a three-day period as traders went from short 50k contracts to long 25k. Volatility is increasing as you saw by last night’s trade. I’m not sure what happens today as the near-term models are mostly dry, but we’ve put a lot into price in a hurry.
Producers need to be making catch up sales on this rally if it stays up here. There’s still plenty of time for weather to improve, but you have insurance and as producers you’re supposed to sell against that coverage.
Have a Safe Day!