Markets are mostly higher with corn up 3, beans up 1 and wheat unchanged this morning. With only 4 trading sessions remaining between now and the NASS Quarterly Stocks/ Seeding reports I expect to things trade sideways with rallies limited by the favorable weather outlook.
Beijing continues to demand that both US and other major exporters sign coronavirus-free certifications on any meats/ grains shipped there. Tyson Foods has said that they would be willing to offer such certifications in an effort to stave off large losses while other US exporters still refuse. In reality these affidavits lack scientific merit and the precedence they would set would be an unfortunate turn of events as the World economies try to return to normal.
US corn exporter’s face an uphill battle with corn out of the Ukraine and South America both trading at a discount to corn originating out of the Gulf. The Argentine discount to the Gulf continues to widen with them offering corn at 45 over the board as compared to 88 cents over the Gulf. Brazil is running 15 cents cheaper than the US supplies.
Crude oil prices are pulling back better than 1% this morning following a private sector report from the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday showing a 1.75 million-barrel build last week. Traders are concerned that rising global coronavirus cases might slow the recovery pace, even as shuttered U.S. production starts to come back online.
Same old story – Lack of demand, favorable weather and lack of any political news to move these markets higher. Unfortunately I think this is what producers should expect for the next 12 months given where things are at and headed.
Producers should actively be making sales now for any crop they have to move this fall. The CBOT does not have a reason to rally and I expect basis levels to widen out with the lack of space to store this years corp.
Have a Safe Day!