Markets are higher this morning with July corn up 2 and December corn up 11. Soybeans and wheat are both 9 higher this morning.
Germany’s foreign minister today joined the crowd in calling for active solutions to getting grain out of Ukraine and combatting world hunger, with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken laying blame on Russian blockades as well— neither took any further immediate action. Romania continues to export Ukrainian grain but is calling for E.U. support and investment, as their main neighboring port of Constanta is having trouble handling increase volumes. Odessa looks to be one of the main targets by Putin and an increase in bombing that port is expected. They are not going to let grain leave the Ukraine unless they sell it.
Private analysts APK-Inform raised their 2022 Ukraine grain production estimate from 48.3 to 52.4 MMT, with wheat up from 17.1 to 18.2 MMT and corn up from 25.2 to 27.7 MMT. 2022/23 Ukraine grain exports went from 39.4 to 40.6 MMT, including 13.2 MMT of wheat and 25.7 MMT of corn.
The funds have spent the week exiting their long July positions as we approach first notice day. While weather forecasts have improved for the long term, I believe the fund movement has been the biggest market mover this week. Next weeks weather forecasts will be critical to the markets. If the ridge forms and longer term forecasts call for hot and dry, we will rally heading into the 4th weekend. If not, we will probably have printed the highs for old and new crop corn for the year.
Have a Safe Day!