Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 9 to start the day. Short term buying or the start of something better is the question. My guess is short term buying as traders begin to position ahead of Fridays report.
Average trade guesses for Friday’s acreage report are 88.56 million acres vs. March’s report of 88.03 million acres. Average guesses for quarterly stocks are 5.268 million bu. compared to last year’s 5.229 for the same time period. 13 of the last 18 years the June acreage report is higher than the March report. Of those 18 years, 6 times it has come in higher in the final report(January).
The 6-10 day weather forecasts are calling for above average temperatures and a lack for precipitation for much of the corn belt. There is adequate soil moisture to withstand the heat and dryness for some time but any prolonged periods of dry and hot weather could produce some issues. The 11-15 day forecast calls for rain in the eastern portion of the corn belt.
Concerns about Chinese demand continue to hang over the market and news that the US intends on unveiling a host of new restrictions on Chinese investment in the US this Saturday, June 30th.
Fundamentally I do not believe we should not be trading as low as we are, but politics has the markets are struggling to find any traction. Producers sitting on old crop corn are running out of time to move it and may not be given many more opportunities. Historically the June Acreage report and July 4th weekend bring an end to any old crop marketing opportunity for producers. This year the end appears to have come much earlier, but time will tell.
Have a Safe Day!