Good morning,
Another mixed trade as we start out about the same as we did yesterday, higher wheat and corn and lower beans. Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 4 to start the day.
Private analyst StoneX estimates South American soybean harvest progressed to 65% complete, up 8% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 1st corn crop is now 52.4% harvested, up about 6% vs. last week and in line with average pace. The 2nd corn crop is now 94% planted, essentially done and ahead of normal pace.
European Union officials said they are preparing to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus, $103.26 per metric tonne; the Kremlin is analyzing details and time frames before issuing a response.
The corn market has popped about 30 cents on a liquidation of about 90k contracts from the managed money crowd. The funds are short 255,000+ contracts which is still a strong short position but is much more manageable than a 340k+ short position they had 3 weeks ago. Using this math, it would take about $1.00 rally to clear out the remaining short position. I would argue the farmer’s length in corn would likely have a bigger impact and not allow that math to ‘work.’
Producers should be actively making old and new crop sales on the recent rally ahead of next Thursdays report.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
