Good morning,
Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 3 to start the week.
The recent selloff has the funds short corn futures for the first time since August of 2020. The funds are currently short corn by about 40,000 contracts. It is going to be hard to get the funds to go long corn contracts again until some weather situation develops in the US.
Traders will turn their focus to this Fridays Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report that will be released at 11am. Quarterly stocks could hold some surprises as feed and residual usage along with exports for corn have deviated from the market’s expectations in the last few weeks. Cattle numbers have declined, and ethanol run rates have been reduced in several areas of the country due to the lack of corn. Despite the recent uptick in export sales, none of these will be reflected in Friday’s report as they will be shipped in Q2 or Q3. Most of the private estimates I have seen expect 91 million acres of corn plantings. Keep in mind the Prospective Plantings report is a report of farmer “intentions” this year, not an actual assessment of what will likely be planted. Under this idea, the intention of farmers should be to plant as much acreage as possible, especially under the current balance sheet situations, but weather can and likely will have a considerable impact on what gets put in the ground relative to early March intentions.
A Farm Futures magazine survey of 800 producers, conducted via email from March 4-14, estimated 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 87.7 million acres, down from 88.6 mln ac last year, with soybeans at 89.6 mln ac, up from 87.45 mln ac last year. All-wheat plantings were seen at 45.7 mln ac, in line with 2022.
I would advise producers to get some new crop sales on the books ahead of Fridays report and additional offers in place for the report. Give us a call to discuss prices.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
