Good Morning,
Markets are lower this am with corn down 6 and soybeans down 5 to start the week.
Going into the crop report, the funds are still holding a hefty amount of corn futures, not very far from the record amount they owned in January. Traders are long soybeans, but are nowhere as close to as long from January as South American harvest has tempered buying for the past two months.
The dry trend in Brazil is expanding to the Southern half of South American. There is almost no rain in the forecast from Mato Grosso and South. Argentina is turning to a drier trend along with Central and Eastern Brazil. Temps will be below normal in Argentina and above normal in North and Eastern Brazil. Harvest is going to accelerate in the next 10 days. Late season corn is going to need a rain at some point. The weather forecast is not bullish or bearish.
USDA Secretary Vilsak is seeking ways to get more acres signed up for the CRP program. The US has about 20 million acres in the program and Congress had set the program closer to 25 million. A quarter of the acres will expire in the next year.
Here are the estimates for Wednesday’s report:
March Quarterly Stocks (billion bushel)
| March 2021 | Ave. Est. | March 2020 | |
| Corn | 7.767 | 7.592 | |
| Soybeans | 1.543 | 2.255 | |
| Wheat | 1.278 | 1.415 |
Planting Intentions (million acres)
| March 2021 | Ave. Est. | USDA 2020 | |
| Corn | 93.208 | 90.819 | |
| Soybeans | 89.996 | 83.084 | |
| Wheat | 44.971 | 44.439 |
The increase in corn and soybean acres is mostly coming from prevent plant, cotton and spring wheat.
Look for more selling ahead of Wednesdays USDA planting intentions and stocks report as traders make slight adjustments to their positions.
Reminder that there are no markets on Friday 4/2/21 as the trade observes Good Friday.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
