Good Morning,

Corn and Beans are both relatively quiet before this morning’s report.

The USDA has a monthly report coming in this morning at 11 AM. Below are estimates.

USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

Yesterday saw a nice start to the day with corn up eight plus cents. This “run” was spurred on by a hot and dry forecast for some larger areas of the Corn Belt that are desperately needing rain. Of course this hot forecast always raises questions about a successful pollination. Along with this, China auctioned off another large volume of corn this month from their reserves, with a 100% sale rate.

A reminder that we need to look at getting firm offers in place, these are working all trade hours and can capture the spikes in the market. Congrats to those that were filled yesterday in the morning, and look to start thinking about locking in old crop at $3.25 or higher, and winter consider offers of $3.45-3.50.

Have a Great Weekend,

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are weaker to start the day with corn and beans down 1-2 and wheat down 3. Shortened trading today as the markets will close at noon. There will be no markets on Friday.

The USDA provided a ray of hope to farmers (at least temporarily) with Tuesdays report. Often these reports squash and rally, but this time they reversed course and gave farmers a marketing opportunity. The data from Tuesday suggested that PP enrollment was nearly half of what it was in 2019, so don’t be too surprised if NASS suddenly decides to put back in 1-2 million corn/bean acres on future reports in the August report and beyond. As I stated in yesterday’s comments, there are a lot of big questions in their numbers and producers should be actively selling before they get corrected.

With crops now entering their reproductive stages, the next 6 weeks are going to be all about the weather. The weather models are struggling to come up with a consensus on an outlook, but the EU model positions the high pressure ridge (HPR) further west keeping high temps not quite as warm as the GFS would indicate. Additionally the forecasts have had a difficult time predicting where the convective thunderstorms will pop up. If weather and forecasts over the weekend show rain and moderate temps come Monday, this market could begin to give back the last few day’s gains. If not we could see a little more premium as the Funds exit short positions.

Have a Happy Fourth of July!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

June went out like a LION and July has entered like one as well in the grain markets. This morning corn is up 7 and soybeans are up 9 at the time of this writing. Both are off of their highs by about 5 cents from earlier this AM.
Yesterday’s USDA report added some life to the markets when corn planted acres came in roughly 3 million acres below the average estimate and more than 4 million below the March report. Soybean acres came in roughly 1 million acres below the average estimate and slightly above the March report. Quarterly stocks came in 273 million bushels above estimates for corn and 6 million bushels below estimates in soybeans.
There are a lot of questions in yesterday’s report that will have to be answered in the coming months. The biggest question I have is where did more than 7 million acres go? In 2018 the US planted 319 million acres to all crops (corn, beans, wheat, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, peanuts, peas, etc.). In 2019 we planted 302 million acres(wet weather and a lot of prevent plant). This year we planted 311 million acres to all crops in what has been the best spring for planting the US has had in several years. When looking at the March intentions vs. the June revisions by state the following states jump out:

North Dakota down 1,400,000
Nebraska down 800,000
South Dakota down 800,000
Illinois down 500,000
Minnesota down 300,000

Of these numbers North Dakota is the only one that I can buy. They had wet weather all spring/summer long and struggled to get the crops in. The rest of the states unplanted numbers are too high in my opinion based on producers/buyers/traders that I have talked to from these states.
Yesterday’s report showed that corn stocks in all positions totaled 5.22 billion bushels on June 1, 1% higher than a year ago. On-farm stocks were 3% higher year over year at 3.03 billion bushels while off-farm stocks were 2% lower year over year at 2.20 billion bushels. The indicated disappearance of 2.73 billion bushels from March-May was 20% lower than the same period last year.
While the acres are a mystery, they have given the producer an opportunity to sell levels that less than 24 hours ago we didn’t think were obtainable. Producers should not lose sight of the fact that we are seeing the best prices since the Middle of March when the pandemic hit. Yesterday’s stocks report was bearish and weather will be the market mover for the coming weeks. Even if the USDA does not make an adjustment to acres later this summer/fall, 92 million acres is still the 5th largest planting we have ever had. Next week’s WASDE report is most likely going to give us a 2.7-3.0+ carryout for next year which is not conducive to prices moving higher. I think we are seeing some short covering and may continue to see that for a day or two, but long term these prices need to be taken advantage of. We are only a government move away from these markets crashing back to the lows seen in early May if/when states decide to shut-down again.
Reminder that the markets will close at noon tomorrow and not re-open until Sunday night.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans down 1. Traders are preparing for tomorrows reports and a holiday shortened week. Tomorrow at 11am the NASS stocks/seeding report will be released which will give us the final acres planted for this year. Expectations are slightly below the March report for corn and up for soybeans. The average corn acreage guess is 95.2 million acres vs. 96.9 in March and 89.7 in 2019. Soybean acres are estimated at 84.7 million acres vs. 83.5 in March and 76.1 in 2019.
The stock market is higher this morning as trader’s debate whether the rising number of Covid positive tests will lead to the FED providing additional stimulus money. Further economic weakening is expected as the coronavirus infections spike both here in the US and around the world.
A normal weather outlook is forecasted for the next two weeks. Fortunately the driest period appears to be over the 4th of July weekend when a high pressure ridge settles over the Midwest. Extended outlooks offer near normal rainfall as well as moisture pulled up from the Gulf. Any extreme heat will be limited.

Todays “fund short covering” rally in corn will be short lived if the USDA reports come in as expected tomorrow. Make sure you are making sales on this short rally and get firm offers in for new crop sales.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are getting hit hard this am with corn down 8-10 and soybeans down 7. Favorable weather forecasts for a warm and wet July are weighing on the crops and outside markets are worried about the rising number of COVID cases leading to a second slowdown in consumer demand.
Over 34,500 new COVID-19 cases were recorded yesterday. This fell just short of the previous record set back on April 24th when New York was in the midst of attempting to control the outbreak there. Both Texas and Florida each hit new records as officials begin to fear that hospitals there could soon be overwhelmed. This has led to Disney delaying the opening of their theme parks in Florida. Elsewhere, Nevada’s Governor has ordered that the public are required to wear masks when they go out. This is a rather predictable disturbing turn of events and we suspect that the next two-weeks will be key.
The potential second wave is proving problematic for public officials across the country who had hoped the disease would subside seasonally like the flu. However, it does not appear to be that type of situation and that COVID outbreaks can just pop up and explode. This is not good news for the hospitality and food service industries who had hoped to get things back on track.
Producers should actively be making sales now for any crop they have to move this fall. The CBOT has no reason to rally and I expect basis levels will widen out with the lack of space to store this year’s crop. My opinion is that while prices may look bleak now, just imagine what they could be this fall with a huge carryout from 2019, a huge crop in 2020 and the strong potential for a second wave of COVID shutting down the country again. $3 corn could look like a great price!

Have a Safe day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com