Good Morning,

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans up 10.

The catalyst for the recovery are reports that Chinese interest for US beans and other Ag products is improving. Newswires carried a story that the Chinese intended on making good on their commitments from the Phase 1 trade deal as they look to bolster their state reserves noting that the bulk of the business would come from the US. They did not set a timetable but the reports did note that they would be seeking 20 MMT of corn to go along with 10 MMT of soybeans.
Brazilian soybean exports for April are on pace to surpass the May 2018 record high of 453.7M bu. Brazilian farmers are taking advantage of a weak real and strong export demand and booking significant sales for the 2020/21 marketing year. Growers in Mato Grosso have already sold 82% of their 2019/20 soybean crop and 55% of their corn. In Parana, 54% of this year’s soybean crop is contracted for sale, compared to 35% a year ago.
Brazilian farmers are looking at long-term sales as well, booking 30% of new crop Mato Grosso soybeans. On average, only 4% of the new crop is contracted at this time of year. Growers in Brazil’s largest agricultural state had sold 23% of the 2020/21 corn crop as of late March, which is well over a year from being harvested.
The US EIA released its weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report and despite a 4.5% increase in weekly gasoline demand, ethanol production set yet another record lower week for output, falling a mere 294M gallons per day to 23.6B gallons per day. Weekly ethanol output has dropped more than 45% since states started putting restrictions on movement in an effort to combat the transmission of COVID-19 went into place a little over a month ago.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Energy prices have become a complete disaster in the last two trading sessions. Yesterday we saw something we’ve never seen before with crude oil futures trading negative in delivery. May crude closes out in delivery today and is trading up 33 dollars a barrel. Yesterday prices went from 17.80 in the overnight session to -40 at one point. If anyone had the ability to store crude oil they could have taken delivery, and payed you to do it. Some readers want to know if this is possible in other commodities like corn, beans or gold. These commodities are storable, and commercial banks or end users would line up to buy gold for less than its worth during delivery, same with corn or beans. Some producers have asked if this could possibly happen in corn, soybeans or other commodities. My answer to that would be NO. These commodities are storable and there would be someone lininkg up to buy and store these if they become too cheap in an attempt to use or sell them later. While crude oil may be storable, the storage capacity is limited.
Nass has reported 7% of the corn crop planted, and 2% of the bean crop. Seeding will dramatically expand this week with field conditions improving. Some of the ground is working up the best in 5 years.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets were weaker this morning with corn down 4 and soybeans down 6.

Weather over the weekend was favorable across most of the Midwest for fieldwork with extended forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather. The 6-10 day weather brings much warmer weather which will see planting progress really ramp up. Expectations for this afternoons planting progress are 6-8% complete on corn with the average being 9%.
The USDA announced a $16 billion dollar package with $3.9 billion to row crops, $5.1 billion to cattle, $2.98 billion to dairy, $1.6 billion to hogs and $1 billion to specialty crops. This is designed to cover a portion of losses from January 1 thru April 15th and then April 15th to the fall. There are many more questions than answers in the package that was released, but it does appear that it only targets unsold grain in the growers inventory.
May crude oil plummeted to a new twenty-year contract low this morning trading at $10.77/barrel as stocks continue to climb with no driving demand.

I cannot emphasize enough that anyone that needing to move old crop corn anytime this spring or summer should get sales on the books! Either cash or basis sales should be made because the end use is not going to be what we are accustom to seeing in the past. I can account for a demand destruction of more than 40 million bushels in Wisconsin alone due to the current situation in the Ethanol industry. This is not confined to WI as every state is dealing with the same issue. There is going to be a lot of old crop corn to move and with another big crop expected this coming fall we are looking at depressed prices for another 12 months +. End users are not going to want to be carrying much of this old crop when we hit September and October due to the quality as they will look to purchase higher quality corn from the 2020 crop. You should also be looking to make some new crop sales for the crop that is going in the ground now. Fall cash prices are hovering around $3/bu and I could easily see them trading in the $2.50-$2.70 range this fall. Basis levels this fall could easily fall to -50 to -60.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The markets are taking a beating again today as corn trades 5 lower, soybeans 5 lower and wheat 16 lower. Uncertainty continues in the livestock sector due to meat plant closures that are limiting upward movement in prices despite some technical buying. The wheat market is dragging markets lower today as fund managers liquidate some of their long positions they have accumulated over the past few weeks.
I cannot emphasize enough that anyone that needing to move old crop corn anytime this spring or summer should get sales on the books! Either cash or basis sales should be made because the end use is not going to be what we are accustom to seeing in the past. I can account for a demand destruction of more than 40 million bushels in Wisconsin alone due to the current situation in the Ethanol industry. This is not confined to WI as every state is dealing with the same issue. There is going to be a lot of old crop corn to move and with another big crop expected this coming fall. End users are not going to want to be carrying much of this old crop when we hit September and October due to the quality as they will look to purchase higher quality corn from the 2020 crop. You should also be looking to make some new crop sales for the crop that will be put in the ground starting in the next week. (what hasn’t already been put in)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The USDA released their first corn planting data yesterday afternoon that showed only 3% of the 2020 crop was estimated to have been planted as of Sunday, equal to the same time last year and only 1% lower than the 5-year average . Corn seedings in Illinois and Indiana were each 1% complete, relatively in line with their 5-year averages. A wet spring has kept farmers from making early planting progress; however, there is still plenty of time to get corn in the ground. The USDA will release soybean planting data in next week’s Crop Progress report.

Over the weekend that Smithfield Foods said it was closing its Sioux Falls, SD pork processing plant indefinitely after 238 workers tested positive for coronavirus. The plant cases amount for 55% of total South Dakota COVID-19 cases. According to Smithfield, the plant accounts for 4% to 5% of the country’s pork production as they slaughter nearly 19,500 pigs per day. It supplies nearly 130M servings of food per week, or about 18M servings per day.

In Greeley, Colorado a JBS beef plant announced it will remain closed for 10 days after a county health department investigation found 43 confirmed COVID-19 cases at the plant. Health officials required the beef plant to close until this morning, JBS made the decision to shutter the plant until April 24 and required all employees to self-quarantine to stop the spread of the virus. A report found that at least 32 workers continued working at the plant while symptomatic, due in large part to a strict absenteeism policy of the plant operators. Of the confirmed cases, 14 workers were hospitalized, 8 employees were intubated, and 2 employees had died from complications from the virus.

The USDA will likely announce the first round of aid for farmers impacted by the coronavirus pandemic this week. The first phase of relief will likely distribute $15.5 billion into the food economy in coming weeks from the $23.5 billion earmarked by Congress for the agricultural industry.
Producers with old crop corn should be getting this crop moved! Elevators and end users across the country are seeing quality issues from producers that are delivering every day. As we have stated all along, this is not a crop you want to store into late summer regardless of how good you think you are doing with maintaining quality. While the basis and cash price may not be what you want, you need to move it while it is still marketable. Demand for old crop corn has dropped dramatically with ethanol plants slowing down or shutting down. I would advise locking in basis contracts to move the grain and plan to price it sometime before the July 4th weekend.
Give us a call to find out what delivery slots we are still buying for before they are filled up.
Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
garrygard@didionmilling.com