Good Morning,

Another day and more rumors of China eliminating tariffs on additional bean purchases from the US. Yesterday’s rumor suggested that China was going to allow an additional 5 mmt of beans to ship tariff free thru January. Illinois Governors’ office Tuesday released statement saying a letter of intent was signed by the Taiwan Feed Industry Association and the Illinois Corn Marketing Board for $2.2 billion in corn, corn product and soybean purchases over the next two years. Corn purchases are expected at 5.0 mln mt, corn product purchases at 500,000 mt and soybean purchases between 2.5 to 2.9 mln mt over 2020-2021 period. The problem with both of these “rumors” is that there has been no follow thru. A lack of confirmation of Chinas bean purchases and negative comments from President Trump on the trade war at yesterday’s UN summit have the markets stagnant to lower today.
Harvest delays in the west and northern areas due to rains could add premium to the market in the coming week. Traders are focusing on the Stocks report Monday. Next Monday the USDA will release its September 1st quarterly stocks report. Estimates are for 2.43 billion bushel in corn which compares to 2.14 in 2018.
With the funds short 162k corn contracts we could see some short covering in the next couple days ahead of month end.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn saw support from the bean market and flooding in the northwest Corn Belt yesterday and managed to close a couple cents higher. Yesterday’s bean rally was the result of China buying PNW beans and reports that Chinese officials rumored to have temporarily lifted tariffs on up to 200 mmt of soybeans. Beans failed to hold the highs as all of these beans were not bought causing traders to question China’s demand for US beans. The market needs to see more than “good will” purchases if it is going to add fundamental risk premium. If China doesn’t buy all 200 mmt, this could be viewed as bearish the bean markets.
There is no serious threat of damaging cold weather in the Midwest growing areas for the next two weeks but there is talk of frost in North Dakota and Minnesota along the Canadian border next week.
Weekly export loadings last week were the lowest since 2013 and significantly below last year. The lack of demand has been and will continue to be the market mover regardless of crop size.

Have a great day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The Chinese trade delegation canceled their US farm tour stops on Friday causing the markets to end last week on a down note. Reasons for the cancelation were not clear, but it is rumored that the farms were actually the ones cancelling the visits. The Chinese were scheduled to visit hog farms in Montana and Nebraska. The farmers are restricting visits due to the swine flu that has devastated the industry.
Markets are stronger this morning after some heavy rains soaked fields from Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin over the weekend.
Next Monday 9/30/19 the USDA will release the September 1st quarterly grain stocks report. Expectations are for this number to be well north of 2.0 billion as exports and domestic demand have been slow.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Even markets to open the day with corn unchanged and beans up 2. Forecasts for the next week locally look favorable with temps in the 70’s thru next week. The first day with sub 40’s isn’t until 10/2 and that is forecasted to be 36.
The latest ethanol production report had production down 20,000 bpd to 1,003,000 bpd. This is the lowest level since April. Reports yesterday that Siouxland Ethanol (90 million gallon plant) in Sioux City IA is shutting down is just another one to the growing list of plants now offline with negative margins. President Trump is meeting with senators from refining states to discuss the RFS as the President is under pressure from cornbelt senators to help the farm community.
Export reports this morning for last week came in above estimates but still significantly behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections. This common theme will continue with a stronger US dollar and increased world supply.

Producers should take advantage of any CBOT or basis bounce for the old crop or any fall bushels that they have left to move. Harvest has hit central IL which is going to put pressure on basis regardless of the crop size as stocks increase. I would advise producers with adequate storage for their fall corn to have 50 % of your crop sold and sit tight on the remaining portion until late winter/early spring.
Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

After a strong Monday and quiet markets overnight the markets have opened lower today as rain has been added next week for the dry southern areas and no indications of a frost threat well into October.
Sources say that President Trump is tentatively backing a plan to increase biofuel blending.
China appears willing to make good on their promises to secure more US Ag products with another gesture of goodwill again this morning. This morning they purchased another 260 MT of soybeans for the 2019/20 marketing year. (Let’s not get too excited, they can cancel just as quick)
Last night’s crop ratings had corn harvest at 4% complete which is slightly behind the 5 year average of 7%.
Basis was starting to strengthen last week across the Midwest with lower CBOT prices. But Friday and Mondays rally in the CBOT has resulted in numbers slipping back down. This is a sign that producers and commercial elevators were heavy sellers on the short rally and end users are filling their pre harvest needs.
Producers should take advantage of any CBOT or basis bounce for the old crop or any fall bushels that they have left to move. Harvest has hit central IL which is going to put pressure on basis regardless of the crop size as stocks increase. I would advise producers with adequate storage for their fall corn to have 50 % of your crop sold and sit tight on the remaining portion until late winter/early spring.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com