Good Morning,

Ag markets are trading lower with corn down 8, beans down 4 and wheat off 6 to 8 cents. Technical selling and concerns over a bearish report from the USDA on Thursday have prices on the defensive to start the day. The funds are long almost 200k contracts of corn so a little profit taking following the last week’s recovery is not a huge surprise.

With 96% of the beans now planted according to the USDA, the trade will refocus its attention to crop conditions and how the wheat harvest is progressing. Wheat harvest is now 47% complete. Crop conditions still look good with 64% of the winter wheat crop rated Good-To-Excellent (GTE). Unsurprisingly corn gained 1% to 57% GTE while beans pulled back 1% to 53%.

Despite the potential for new business from China when and if trade negotiations pan out, the trade continues to struggle to rally back to pre-trade war price levels. A big part of that is the ongoing African Swine Flu (ASF) problem that has government officials culling animals. Additionally, the expansion of Chinese domestic production of soybeans just exacerbates the problem of the expanding stockpile of world supplies. Both are a direct result of the trade war and are likely to have lasting implications on just how much the Chinese will need to secure. The ASF has helped to encourage their population to seek out other types of proteins like beef. Likewise the increase in bean acreage over there will decrease their dependency on the US for soy.

The weather models are in fair agreement in calling for a tropical system to move out of the Gulf and over the Delta and Southeast for the next 7 to 10 days. The system looks like it will trek further east than we had seen in previous runs and bring meaningful rains to the Delta up through Illinois and Indiana. Beyond that it looks like we will see a return to more normal summer weather. Latest longer-term runs show no set up that is too threatening. We may get some ridging developing beginning around the 18th that could have temps across the Midwest heating up into the lower 90’s, but nothing that looks to be too strong.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets have opened higher this morning due to the big shift in the extended weather forecast. Corn is currently up 2 and soybeans are up 3. Traders are definitely eyeing the hot and dry weather forecast that is expected to linger across much of the Corn Belt for the next 2 to 3 weeks. This is a pretty big shift in the weather pattern for much of the U.S. This change in weather should be beneficial for root depth and early crop development initially, but with the lack of rain expected traders are nervous to how this will affect yield. With the yield disputes still in question, markets will be extra sensitive to any weather concerns going forward. We will have our weekly crop progress report released this afternoon after the close of trade and this Thursday the July WASDE report will be released. We will see if any improvements in the crop conditions are enough to quell some of the fear regarding the yield debate or if the hot and dry forecast will keep the trend higher. If you are still sitting on any old crop corn, I would consider selling some amount as we are seeing better prices for the nearby months rather than the deferred. Also, I would recommend getting some new crop corn on the books and locked in at profitable levels that may not be here by the time of harvest.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets have opened lower this morning after Wednesdays big run up that was led by acreage talks, yield discussions, opinions on weather forecasts and a shortened week of trading. There will not be a lot of traders in the markets today as many exited the markets at noon on Wednesday for an extended holiday break.
The weather forecast for the next 14 days looks mostly dry which is a big change from the past month. There is a ridge building next week that will last for almost 14 days bringing drier and warmer temps. Fortunately the majority of the heat will be in the Southern US away from the major growing areas.
Weekly exports for the week show corn at 6.9 million bu. which is down from the 10 week average of 13.6 million. US corn exports are 350 million bushels below last years pace for this same timeframe. These export numbers should not come as a surprise as US corn compared to Brazilian corn delivered to Mexico and Japan is between .20 and .70 cents/bu. more expensive. This also helps explain why southern end users in the US (Poultry/Cattle) are importing corn from South America at cheaper rates than they can buy US corn.
Corn is currently down 5 and soybeans are down 13.

My advice to producers is to continue to take advantage of the great markets we have seen over the last month. Basis levels across the US have strengthened for old crop and the CBOT seems to have found a stable trading range. The late planted corn and lack of acres have already been traded for the most part and this market is not going to keep running higher despite what some may think should happen. At the very least you should have firm offers in on old and new crop corn with your buyers. Producers should also be making sales for the 2020 crop as I do not expect prices to be at the current levels a year from now when we have 5-10 million more corn acres in the ground.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are currently down, but are expected to remain steady throughout the day. Corn is down 2 cents and soybeans are down 9 cents. Through the overnight of trade, markets seemed to have consolidated a bit after the weekly crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon. Crop ratings came in essentially unchanged from the prior week’s report. Corn remains at 56% good to excellent on a national level and Wisconsin corn is right at that mark with 56% good to excellent as well. To a bit of a surprise, we did see some big drops in the ratings of the ECB states with IL dropping 5% good to excellent, IN dropping 4%, and OH dropping 8%. However, those drops in ratings were made up from the increases we saw from the corn out west and that is how we remain unchanged on a national level. Soybeans came in at 54% good to excellent on a national level and 61% good to excellent here in the state of Wisconsin. With the markets now moving on from last Friday’s acreage/stocks report and the fact that the re-survey data won’t be here until August, I think the attention will shift back to the weather. The yield debate will definitely be brought into the spotlight in the weeks to come. The weather outlook does seem to have more normal temperatures on the horizon and above average precipitation. Most are viewing this as ideal weather for early crop development, which will probably keep the markets from entering into any rally soon. Weather will definitely be the big driver of the markets here in the next few weeks since yield will be determined from how this corn develops. I would recommend calling in the next few days before the holiday to discuss opportunities of locking in old crop or new crop at profitable levels.

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are currently trading lower with corn down 10 cents and soybeans down 5 cents. Many traders are still left scratching their heads from the report that was released this past Friday. Following the release, there was such a backlash against some of the data that the USDA said they are going to redo the survey in July and, if need be, they will give us an updated intended acres planted on August 12th’s report. The biggest skepticism came from the corn acreage number that came in at 91.7 million acres planted. This was 5 million acres above the average of many analysts’ estimates. This sent trade in a whirlwind and on Friday corn closed 20 cents lower than the previous day of trade. As the new week begins, trade will continue to search for an answer to where the acreage number is at and what yield will turn out to be. The weather across much of the Corn Belt looks favorable in the next 6-10 days. In our area, slight to moderate chances of showers are expected throughout the week with warmer temperatures remaining. In the 11-15 day time frame, warmer temps will be giving way to a cooler pattern going forward. Overall, I believe trade will be volatile in the few weeks to come due to questionable data. I believe it will be hard for corn prices to make another jump above the highs we saw this last month. It is going to take something drastic to move corn prices with such a large acreage number looming in the mind of many traders and some favorable weather in the forecast. I would recommend calling in today to discuss the best marketing opportunities for your operation.

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com