Good Morning,

While export demand has been slow or at least slow to be reported for the last couple weeks, the domestic demand has remained steady on the ethanol front. U.S. ethanol production for the week ended January 11th averaged 1.051 mil barrels per day (up 5.10% versus a week ago, down 0.94% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 23.351 mil barrels (up 0.42% versus a week ago, up 2.67% versus last year); corn use for the week was 108.5 mil bu (103.2 mil last week and versus the 107.5 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections).
Andrew Wheeler the acting administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency said a rule to allow sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline year-round is being delayed by a partial government shutdown.
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced that many Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices will reopen temporarily in the coming days to perform certain limited services for farmers and ranchers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recalled about 2,500 FSA employees to open offices on Thursday, January 17 and Friday, January 18, in addition to Tuesday, January 22, during normal business hours. The offices will be closed for the federal Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday on Monday, January 21. Reopened FSA offices will only be able to provide the specifically identified services while open during this limited time.

Services that will not be available include, but are not limited to:
• New direct or facility loans.
• New Farm loan guarantees.
• New marketing assistance loans.
• New applications for Market Facilitation Program (MFP).
• Certification of 2018 production for MFP payments.
• Dairy Margin Protection Program.
• Disaster assistance programs, such as:
• Livestock Indemnity Program.
• Emergency Conservation Program.
• Wildfires and Hurricanes Indemnity Program.
• Livestock Forage Disaster Program.
• Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-Raised Fish.

Producers with old crop corn to move before spring planting should be making sales with the forecast for no significant moves higher between now and spring. I would look to make sales prior to the March 29th planting intentions report. Producers that typically move grain in the mid-summer months should be making cash sales with current prices in the $3.65-3.70 range and lock in basis on a good portion on their remaining bushels. US Carryout of corn is going to be large again this year which will make current levels look very attractive.
Corn quality has also been an issue this year with higher levels of toxins in this year’s crop. Higher vomitoxin levels have resulted in many Midwestern producers scrambling to find a market for their grain as many ethanol plants and livestock producers have been discounting or rejecting loads with higher levels. Producers should be pulling grain out of their bins on a regular basis to monitor quality and prevent increased contamination of any toxins. Lighter test weight and poorer quality grain should not be stored into the summer months.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Prices are trending higher this morning as they recover from yesterday’s selloff following comments from US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer who reportedly said they made no real progress over the last week in talks with Chinese officials.
The market appears to be focusing its attention on the S. American weather forecast with the latest showing a drier outlook for Brazil over the next two weeks.
With the lack of USDA reports to confirm or deny any rumors of export sales, the market will continue to trade S. American weather and trade rumors. Any rally in the markets should be sold as the long term outlook is a carryout in corn and soybeans that will not be reduced significantly to push the markets significantly higher.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Soybeans and wheat are lower to open the week while corn continues it sideways pattern. Recently the only market movers we have seen are coming from the soybean market. China confirmed its total soybean purchases were 5.72 mmt in December. This was below the 6.5 mmt that traders were expecting. This was the lowest December purchase since 2011.
Rains in Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil over the weekend continue the flooding potential. The forecast calls for more rain in those areas this week while central and northern parts of Brazil are expected to remain dry.
Producers with old crop corn to move before spring planting should be looking to make sales with the forecast for no significant movements higher between now and spring. I would look to make these sales prior to the March 29th planting intentions report. Producers that typically move grain in the mid-summer months should look to make some cash sales with current prices in the $3.75-3.80 range and lock in basis on a good portion of the remaining bushels. US carryout of corn is looking to be large again this year which would make current basis levels very attractive.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s selloff. Yesterday’s weakness was felt in all commodities as bullish updates from China and the US didn’t come. Funds sold 12,000 contracts of corn and 8,000 contracts of beans.
South American weather hasn’t been ideal, but production updates from their government indicate they anticipate the crop to be 95.6 mmt which is up 15.6 mmt from last years.
Look for the markets to remain in a sideways pattern as traders monitor South American weather and the daily saga between the US and China. Traders are hopeful that we will see a China trade deal soon or at least an additional good faith purchase as negotiations progress. The US government shutdown could impact any sales news with the lack of weekly export reports.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 1 and soybeans are down 1 to start the morning. Crude oil is up 80 cents this morning but still lingering below the $50/barrel mark that we have been stuck in for the last month. With US/China trade talks progressing, US Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross says both sides can make a deal that works for both. There were rumors yesterday that China bought at least 3 cargos of US soybeans through March, with some sources hearing as many as 25 cargos had traded. These rumors cannot be confirmed due to the government shutdown. In addition to soybeans there continues to be interest in China purchasing corn and wheat from the US in significant quantities. While they are only rumors at this point, it does show that there is a lot of interest in the US and China moving forward.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com