March 25, 2019
Good Morning,
Markets are steady to start the week with both corn and soybeans hanging around unchanged. Last week resulted in a 5 cent gain in corn futures and a 5 cent loss in soybean futures. The funds remain short 265,000 corn and 61,000 soybean contracts.
Flooding in the western states and the talk of lost acres this spring has caught the traders attention, but we have yet to see any trade reflect this so far.
This week may be the best chance for the markets to rally with month end, quarter end and USDA reports on Friday. Fridays report will show quarterly stocks along with the first look at planting intentions for US acreage. With the funds sitting on record shorts I would not be surprised to see a small rally early in the week.
Producers are advised to get firm offers in with us before this week’s report and before you head to the field. Last week we were able to fill some $3.90 offers for February and March of 2020! These are great prices and more producers should be taking advantage of December thru May 2020 prices in the $3.75 to $3.95 range. Give us a call today to put in your offers.
We will be at the WPS Farm Show in Oshkosh this week on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Visit us in booth A3518.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
March 22, 2019
Good Morning,
Corn is trading 2-3 higher this morning after talks yesterday that China had stepped up and booked its first purchase of US corn. Corn prices have risen despite fund managers increasing their record net short position. The USDA confirmed yesterday’s rumor with an announcement on the daily system that the Chinese had purchased 300 MT of corn. This is a good sign with the US negotiating team arriving in Beijing this weekend.
I don’t expect the market to move dramatically either direction in the next several months unless we see a significant weather issue. (Excessive wet spring or widespread summer drought) Next Thursday the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report along with the 2019 planting intentions. Estimates are for corn acres to increase by 2-3 million acres. I believe the market has 1-2 million more acres traded so far and could trade lower if we come in at 3 million.
GO BADGERS!!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
March 21, 2019
Good Morning,
Quiet markets to open the day with corn up 1 and soybeans down 2. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report had production down 1000 bpd to 1.0 million as stocks jumped 681,000 barrels to 24.41 million barrels. Tjhis morning export sales for the week ending 3/14 came in at 33.7 million bushel for corn and 14.7 million bushel for soybeans. Corn is slightly below the ten week average of 37.4 while soybeans are significantly below the ten week average of 41.7.
President Trump said on Wednesday afternoon that tariffs on Chinese goods may be kept in place even if a trade deal is consummated to make sure China is living up to the deal. (looks like things are really going well)
The funds remain significantly short corn beans and wheat with nothing fundamental to move them out of these positions. We have been hearing for months that there “has to be a rally”, but it is becoming more and more obvious that this may not happen.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
March 19, 2019
Good Morning,
Corn and soybean markets are steady this morning after the funds added to their short position yesterday. The funds currently sit short 259,000 contracts of corn, 85,000 contracts of soybeans and 75,000 contracts in the wheat market.
Flooding in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri continue and look to continue in the near future with warmers temperatures adding additional snow melt to the already overwhelming water levels in these areas. This flooding will definitely have an impact on the planted acres this spring, but the extent of acres would only be a guess at this point.
Sonny Perdue said that trade talks with China are “dynamic” and that China could triple its 2017 purchases of US farm goods in the next five years. These comments are getting old and until we see the sales and actual shipments I am not going to get too excited.
Next Thursday the USDA will release its quarterly stocks and planting intentions report. This will be the last market mover report until the June stocks and planted acres report.
With spring field work and planting right around the corner, make sure you take time to get firm offers in with your buyers, update the firm offers you have in.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
March 13, 2019
Good Morning,
Futures are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s Turnaround Tuesday that saw wheat post its biggest 1 day gain in 7 months. Part of the rally was sparked by the strength in the cash basis for hi-pro wheat from mills. The turnaround helped futures hold support after the markets had become oversold. In the outside markets, the US Dollar is steady, crude oil is back above $57/ barrel and gold is trading higher as investor utilize it as a safe haven.
US Trade Ambassador Lighthizer will be speaking to Members of the House Ways and Means Committee. When he met with Senators yesterday he spoke positively on the progress being made between the US and China. We anticipate that we will hear more of the same from him today. Chinese media continue to report progress, but are not receiving the assurances they are seeking about the tariffs being lifted. With positive rhetoric coming out of Washington, the prospect of a trade deal between the World’s two largest economies coming in just weeks should be enough to keep the heavy sellers on the sidelines. Argentine corn is running about 25 cents cheaper than shipments originating out of the Gulf at this time which will keep pressure on exports.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
