Corn in unchanged and soybeans are up 5 to open the month and close out the week. February was a rough month on all commodities with corn down 14, soybeans down 19 and wheat down 64 cents! This is the result of a market with no bullish news and a lot of rumors that have not been confirmed. We continue to hear reports of the US and China working out deals to end the tariffs and increase purchases of US products, but to date there has been nothing concrete to give traders confidence. We need to keep in mind that while a deal may sometime get worked out, every day that goes by without sales to China is one less day for us to decrease our stocks and one day closer to another crop to put in the bins. Traders are now estimated to be short 120,000 contracts of corn, 35,000 soybeans and 70,000 wheat.

While I don’t anticipate any major moves, let’s hope that March is a better month for the markets!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn couldn’t hang on to gains yesterday as there was no news on the trade front with China. Trade appears to be waiting for the actual confirmation of a trade pact or news that China is securing US grain before it will give any reaction. This has been the story for the last several months and while it may appear that we are close to a deal, I am not anticipating a dramatic move in the markets anytime soon.
Funds are short 66,000 contracts of corn and 46,000 contracts in the wheat market. This is the shortest they have been in corn sickness the 9th of October! Is this a precursor for where we are headed longer term??
Corn is trading 3 lower and soybeans are 12 lower this morning.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 7 to open the week. Reports from Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue last Friday after the markets had closed that China had committed to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of soybeans has added some short term support to the markets. Whether these are old or new crop beans remains to be seen. Perdue also said that China is interested in corn, ethanol, dried distillers grain, beef and poultry. President Trump has said that he will hold off increasing tariffs for now because substantial progress has been made in talks with China.
Mexico stepped up to purchase just under 280 mt of corn overnight in an apparent attempt to secure grain ahead of any Chinese activity.
Fridays Cattle on feed report showed cattle marketed during December was 99.4% of last year, placed on feed was 98.2% of last year and cattle on feed was 101.7% of last year. All three were below trade estimates.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up 6 and soybeans are up 11 to open the day after traders got acreage estimates from the Ag outlook forum. Corn planted acres for this coming year were estimated at 92 million acres which is up 3.3% from last year’s 89.1 million acres. Soybean acres are estimated at 85.0 million acres which is down 4.7% from last year’s 89.2 million acres. While corn acres are up 2.9 million acres, they are below what traders have been expecting for this coming year. While todays data is giving live to the markets, it is important to keep in mind that these estimates do not include farmer surveys like the March 29th report will.
Optimism and rumors that China is proposing to buy $30 billion a year of US agriculture products as a possible trade deal between the two countries. The offer to buy the extra farm products would be part of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) under discussion by US and Chinese negotiators in Washington and would be on top of pre-trade war levels and continue for the period covered by the memorandum. The 6 MOU’s include general agreements on: 1. Forced Technology & Cyber Theft, 2. IP Protection/Rights, 3. Services, 4. Currency, 5. Non-tariff barriers to trade and 6. Agriculture.
Producer selling across the Midwest has been steady for the last month despite stagnant prices on the CBOT. Some areas of the country are seeing basis levels narrow as weather has hampered delivery of grain. Other areas of the country are seeing basis levels widen or bids totally removed as end users are bought up. My projection is that we will see more of the latter in our area as end users continue to get bought up and on farm/commercial stocks remain high. I would advise producers to make cash sales or at least lock in basis on any old crop that remains uncommitted.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Trade is quiet this morning after a three day weekend for traders. Corn is currently down 1 and soybeans are down 4. News this week will continue to focus on the US-China trade, export data and the Ag Outlook Forum.
China has trade representatives in Washington DC to resume talks with the hope of making some progress ahead of the March 1st deadline.
The USDA will release six weeks of export data on Friday, which will be the last of the reports that have been delayed due to the government’s last shutdown.
The USDA Agriculture Outlook Forum starts on Thursday in Washington and will give us the first look at their 2019/2020 Supply and Demand expectations. This report will also show the first “guess” on planted acres for this coming year. While this report doesn’t carry the weight of the March 29th prospective plantings report, it will carry more weight than it has in the past. With the large carryout in soybeans, we will need to see bean acres limited in this report to keep soybeans from free falling.
Weather in South America has turned dry for Argentina. Very little rain is forecast for the next two weeks. Dryness in the Southern growing area could have an impact on soybeans. Above normal rainfall is forecast for most of the Brazilian growing area. Southern Brazil should see good rains over the next two weeks. Harvest in Northern Brazil should move to 50% complete in the next week.

** Reminder that tomorrow is the last day to sign up for our Fall APC contract. **

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com