Good Morning,

Weather finally appears to be getting the attention of traders as harvest delays continue across the Midwest. With forecasts for rain thru the middle of next week for the majority of the upper Midwest we are seeing the funds cover some of their long standing short positions. The concern over lost yield in soybeans and poor quality in corn due to the excessive rains has gained some momentum this week.
The funds have reduced their short corn position by 22,000 contracts in the last week. Soybeans shorts have only been reduced by 5,000 in the last week.
While we have seen and may see some more short covering with the weather premiums the size of this years crop does not appear that it is going to shrink enough to send the markets significantly higher. I look for this to be confirmed next week in the USDA’s October S&D report that will be released on Thursday. Private analysts are expecting both corn and soybeans to be higher than the USDAs September report by as much as 1 bpa on corn and beans.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making small sales for December and January to core out there bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making small sales for the fall of 2019 with prices in the $3.70 range.

Have a Safe weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are both up 1 to start the day. Export sales released this morning showed corn at 56 million bushel which is down from last week but well above the ten week average of 27 million. Soybean exports also came in at 56 million bushel which is significantly above the ten week average of 18 million.
Weekly ethanol production dropped for the second straight week to 1.015 million barrels per day compared to 1.036 last week and 1.051 the week before. It is still above this time last year. With most ethanol plants taking their fall shutdowns in late September thru mid October these drops are not only expected but needed to help reduce stocks.
The USDA S&D report will be released a week from today. Look for the traders to position themselves between now and then for any surprises. Private surveys will be released in the next few days with the expectation that many are looking for larger corn and soybean yields.

Reminder – All loads need to be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Commodities are unchanged this morning with a lack of follow through buying after a couple days of higher trade in the corn and bean markets. There has been some technical buying and short covering after Monday’s news of Canada and the US coming to an agreement on NAFTA.
December corn is trying to hold above its 50 day moving average and is currently trading at $3.68.
Forecasts for the next 10 days are calling for extended periods of rain impacting harvest activities throughout the central US. An estimated 35-40% of the corn and bean crops will be directly impacted by this weather with soybeans being the most susceptible to loss.
President Trump is expected to visit Council Bluffs, Iowan next Tuesday to announce the lifting of the summer ban on higher ethanol blends of gasoline and to possibly announce tighter restrictions on the trading of ethanol blending credits.
Producers should be looking to add to their corn sales for this winter and next spring at current levels. Sales of $3.60-3.65 for January thru May are now obtainable. Producers should also be looking to put small sales on for next fall in the $3.70 range.

Reminder – All loads need to be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

October 1, 2018

Good Morning,

Friday’s bearish stocks report from the USDA put pressure on the markets to end the week and month. This will add more pressure to the markets longer term if yields for the 2018 crop continue to be good.
The markets are higher this morning on the heels of a surprise development that the US and Canada reached a last minute deal last night on a new NAFTA accord. This agreement should lead to a late November signing ceremony to seal the deal. With this news I would not be surprised to see additional fund buying to start the 4th quarter that could lead to a small rally.
Fridays report made it clear that if the market is going to rally it is going to be if we can get a robust export program in place.
Forecasts for the week remain cool and wet which should ease some of the harvest pressure in the south that has resulted in long lines and limited space. Producers in WI and MN should take note of these issues and make sure you have a plan for fall bushels.

Reminder – All loads being delivered to Didion must be scheduled. (Contract and spot bushels)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The three big commodities are trading close to unchanged this morning with corn and beans up a half and wheat down 1. Corn yields continue to be all over the board with the majority of them coming in higher than last years record numbers.
There is optimism over a new trade deal with Japan as the trade prepares for tomorrows September Grain Stocks and Small Grains report. The deal would substantially boost exports of beef, pork, wheat and a host of other ag commodities.
Tomorrow the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report for September. The fact that it comes at a month end could add to the volatility in the markets as traders look to position themselves ahead of the October business. Estimates for tomorrow’s numbers are 2.002 billion bushel for corn compared to 2.293 last year. Soybeans are estimated at 394 million bushel compared to 302 million last year. Wheat is estimated at a staggering 2.350 billion bushel compared to 2.266 last year. (Report will be released at 11am)
It is interesting to note aht while China openly turned its back on the US soybeans for more expensive beans out of Brazil, the total US inspection are running about 8% higher than this time last year. Despite these numbers traders will key in on the USDA’s forecast for a record production as long as the US and China remain at odds.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com