Good Morning,

Buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction in the markets yesterday resulted in the soybeans selling off which pulled corn lower. Chinese soybean sales numbers that were not even close to the 5 to 8 MMT rumors that came from last week’s meeting had traders in a sell mode. In positive news the Chinese did announce that beginning January 1, they would suspend their tariffs on $126 billion of US automobiles and products. This is another confirmation of the Presidents promise that tariffs on US autos would revert back to the 15% level before the trade war began.
I would advise producers to start looking at making sales for October/November of 2019 at the current levels. We are currently in the 70th percentile for the last five years with current prices in the $3.70-3.75 range. Any sale that can be made at or above this percentile is strongly recommended. If we increase corn acreage in 2019 by 4-5 million acres next year and drop yield back to 175 bpa we could very easily push next year’s carryout over 2.0 billion bushels. This is why I would advise producers to have a minimum of 20% of your fall corn sold at this level.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is currently even, and soybeans down eleven. Trade saw China purchase 500,000 tonnes of soybeans, the first since the G20 Summit. This is encouraging progress, though many traders were expecting a number ten times higher. US House and Senate passed the farm bill, with Trump the final stop for signature. House vote was 369-47, the bill that 40 million Americans depend on for SNAP.

In my opinion, these headlines are proving that corn has a stable/positive outlook at this time. With that being said, make sure to have firm offers in place and make your targets known. Keep in mind some bids that have been stable over the past week: January $3.60, June $3.75, October $3.73.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Overnight China and the US discussed the road map for the next stage of their trade talks. Both sides exchanged views and worked out details for continued meetings when the Chinese delegation comes to the US.(A meeting in DC is expected soon). There are rumors of a purchase of 5-8 mmt of beans getting bought this week from China. China imports close to 7 mmt/month, so this number seems about right.
USDA crop report out at 11am today with little surprises expected. Corn carryout is expected to increase slightly from the November report. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

2018-19 Ending Stocks (million bu)
December 11 Average Est. USDA November
Corn 1.781 1.744 1.736
Soybeans 955 938 955
Wheat 974 969 949

2018-19 World Stocks (million metric ton)
December 11 Average Est. USDA November
Corn 308.8 308.4 307.5
Soybeans 115.3 113.2 112.1
Wheat 268.1 267.3 266.7

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Markets are slightly lower this morning with corn down 1 and soybeans down 4 to start the week.
Look for grain trade to take direction from the stock market trade this week.
We will be monitoring the same news this week as traders wait for some news on the trade front. Vice Premier Lui is coming to Washington DC this week with a 30 member delegation to start trade talks. It is likely that Ag and Energy purchases will be made on follow thru from what was agreed upon at the G20.
An announcement of was supposed to happen on the second aid package for soybeans last week, but has not yet been confirmed. I have heard that offices were to be prepared to start filing paperwork as soon as today.
The USDA December Supply and Demand report will be released tomorrow at 11am. Yield will not be updated on this report, but we do expect to see changes in carryout of both corn and soybeans. Continued low export numbers in soybeans and lower ethanol margins in corn are expected to increase ending stocks in this report. I don’t expect much reaction to tomorrow’s report as historically this report generates little interest as traders await the final report in January.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 15 to start the day. Traders are becoming more skeptical that tension between the US and China is easing. One sign, China has said they will be buying US commodities, however they have not dropped or lowered tariffs.
The corn market has no direction as domestic demand looks to slow with poor ethanol margins. With no fundamental direction, corn is basically following soybeans as we wait for the January 11th USDA report on the final size of the 2018 crop.
Producers looking or needing to move grain before the end of the year have little hope of the market rallying into the end of the year and should take advantage of current cash prices. Producers that can hold off until the January 11th report will have more opportunity and I would advise putting in firm offers and waiting.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com