Good Morning,

Softer markets overnight and this morning as we give back some of yesterday’s gains as uncertainty remains around the Chinese-US trade truce. The ag markets are starving for more detail as we await the next piece of news around this last weekend’s talks and any future discussions. China’s government hasn’t been able to formulate a response to the summit this last weekend with President Trump because President Xi and his senior officials are still out of the country.

Without a weather issue in South America the demand for US beans will continue to shrink regardless of trade talks. With US bean carryout’s approaching the 1 billion bushel level in the last report, it will take some time and a lot of demand to bring these levels back down.

So far this week the markets have gained 7 cents in corn and 18 cents in soybeans in what may be a buy the rumor sell the fact move.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

The corn market was lower overnight and is currently unchanged as traders don’t feel they have seen enough details from the US-China talks over the weekend. China remains silent regarding the trade truce that was apparently agreed to with the US. They have not agreed to buy large amounts of US commodities, nor have they agreed to lower tariffs on soybeans. President Trump did agree to delay any further tariffs for 90 days, but stated that all existing tariffs will remain in place until further notice.
Harvest progress was reported at 94% complete in corn and soybeans for the US in last night’s report. Wisconsin came in at 88% complete in corn and 94% complete in soybeans.
Sunday night’s markets gapped higher in both corn and soybean markets which I think will be filled in the coming week or weeks. Look for the markets to trend sideways to slightly lower with these gaps in mind.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Futures at the CBOT are higher with corn up 5 cents, beans up 5 and wheat up a 4 cents as well. News early this morning of a new NAFTA agreement has also helped brighten the mood heading into the pivotal Saturday meeting at the G20 between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.
Things started out slightly lower overnight, but recovered as hopes grew that Trump and Xi will be able to iron out some of their differences over trade and come up with some sort of truce. Any truce will likely need concessions from China to end their tariffs on US soybeans and other goods. An agreement, even if it is rudimentary, might prevent current US tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods from rising from 15% to 25% and provide the time necessary to negotiate the details of much a broader framework.

Obviously there is another outcome from Saturday night’s dinner that is significantly less desirable. It would not take a very big stretch of the imagination to see the two leaders unable to come to an agreement and the trade war escalates with our current tariffs rising to 25% and the possibility of tariffs on another $270B of Chinese goods becoming a reality.

I would advise producers to be making some sales for summer and fall of 2019 at current levels. July $3.70 and Oct/Nov $3.65-3.70 levels are on the table and should be grabbed.

Have a Safe Weekend.

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans have both opened the day higher and are trading 3 and 12 higher respectively. Today’s trade is similar to yesterdays that opened higher and failed to sustain its strength closing unchanged. Soybeans did manage to 13 higher yesterday after trading 20 higher earlier in the session. Traders continue to monitor headlines, quotes and tweets about the potential negotiations between China and the US ahead of this weekend’s G20 meetings.
Look for the markets to remain neutral as neither the bulls or bears are willing to stick their necks out too far with so much on the line and no strong indication of what will come out of these meetings. We do not need to see a resolution this weekend, but will need to see progress made and both sides willing to work on a solution. The refusal of either side to work towards a deal this weekend would not bode well for the grain markets. The US is not alone in these problems either, the EU and Japan have major stakes in the meetings this weekend. If any new tariffs are put in place it would put a coalition between the US, EU and Japan in jeopardy.
I remain optimistic that something will get done this weekend, but the risk of the 25% tariffs going into place would be devastating to the markets.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Grain markets are trying to stabilize after yesterday’s selloff in corn and soybeans. Corn closed 3 lower and soybeans were down 19 yesterday. This morning corn is unchanged and soybeans are up 2.
Yesterday’s weakness was a result of President Trump indicating that he would move ahead with increased tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods from 10% up to 25% and put tariffs on the rest of the Chinese goods that are not subject to tariffs yet. This is the Presidents hard line of negotiating ahead of the G20 summit. Trump also said that a deal could happen but it’s up to the Chinese.
Weather has been terrible to finish the last 6% of harvest with snow across the Midwest over the last few days. Yesterday afternoons progress report showed the US 94% complete on corn and 94% complete on soybeans. Wisconsin was 88% complete on corn and 94% complete on soybeans.
Fridays G20 summit could be the next mover in the markets depending the outcome of US and Chinese negotiations. (higher or lower)
Funds have added to their short positions in corn and beans over the last week which is a negative indicator for the markets in the short term.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com