Good Morning,

Corn and beans are both trading lower this morning down 1 and 4 respectively. Traders are watching three things for direction going forward:
1. Today’s election results.
2. Thursdays USDA S&D report.
3. Chinese and US trade talks.

Today’s mid-term elections have been billed in the media as a referendum on President Trump’s first two years in office. It goes without saying that the White House’s trade war has led to frustrating 5 to 6 months for American farmers as they got caught in the crossfire. However, there has been a dramatic shift in rhetoric from both sides in the past week. The idea of some sort of a truce or halt to the trade war materializes when Presidents Trump and Xi sit down at the G20 meeting at the month is gaining significant traction.

Estimates for the USDA report are calling for a yield reduction from the October report in corn from 180.7 to 180.0 and soybeans from 53.1 to 53.0. Ending stocks in corn are estimated at 1.78 billion bushels while soybeans are estimated at 900 million bushels. Both of these levels would indicate plenty of grain and sideways markets.

Last night’s Harvest Progress report showed the US is 76% complete on corn compared to 68% last year and a five year average of 77%. Wisconsin is reported at 59% complete this week compared to 35% last year and 51% on average. It is still early, but the trade doesn’t look for a significant change in next weeks numbers with the weekend and early week rains.

We have a HOT DEAL for producers looking to move corn in April/May this coming year. You can lock in a basis of -10 CK19!! Give us a call for details.

Make sure you get out and Vote today!!

Have a Great Day!!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

After mutual statements of optimism about trade talks from Presidents Trump and Xi yesterday, the markets responded with sharp price gains led by soybeans. While this was a great move in the markets (corn up 3 and soybeans up 30) producers need to remember that this was just a knee jerk reaction to a “tweet” by our president and holds no water until a deal is reached. We have seen the market move both ways over the last several months on comments that were made. We also need to remember that if a deal is worked out, the Chinese have found protein replacements for US soy products over the last six months which means their demand will not come back to previous levels. We also have to look at how competitive our soybean prices are on the world market. Prior to yesterday’s rally, US soybeans were $.70/bu. more expensive than Brazilian soybeans! What could be key for the US is if we can get a deal done in the very short term with China. We have about a 10 week window before South American soybeans become readily available again.
Next Thursday’s USDA report will be the focus of traders early next week. Yesterday private analyst FC Stone pegged the corn yield at 181.4 vs. their October estimate of 182.7 and dropped their soybean yield from 54 to 53.2.
Market movers the next 5 trading days will be:
Harvest Progress
Election Results
USDA Report

We have a HOT DEAL for producers looking to move corn in April/May this coming year. You can lock in a basis of -10 CK19!!! Give us a call for details.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Here is the news that is moving the market today:

Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2018

I would advise producers not to get too excited as this tweet as history has told us that we could see another “tweet” in the next hour that puts the markets on the defensive.

SELL THE BOUNCES!!!

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

It appears that weaker markets are in store to end the month. October offered some hope as we rallied 22 cents in the first 15 days only to fall 15 cents in the last 15 days. With heavy harvest activity and little to no news on the political side the markets will remain range bound. I would expect both corn and soybeans to trade lower today as traders pocket some money at month end. The good news is that the funds started the month short 125k corn contracts and are now long 19k contracts.
Ag Secretary Perdue confirmed that a second round of payments will be coming to farmers, most likely in the same amount as the first. While this is not very lucrative for corn producers who receive .005/bu in the first payment for bushels produced this year, it is very good for soybean producers who received .825/bu in the first payment. The $1.65 MFP payment would bump most cash prices to well over $9/bu.
I would advise producers looking for space this fall to lock in basis contracts vs. the CH which would give you a couple months for the markets to rally back to better levels. This is a great way to give yourself time to price while avoiding high storage charges that are being charged by warehouses. Give us a call for more details.

We will be closing our scale at 3:00 pm today to help make the streets of Cambria safer for Trick or Treating. We will resume normal 7-7 hours on Thursday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Fridays rally in the corn market was driven by wheat prices. With the US securing some of the Egyptian wheat tender last week we saw wheat make a nice rally. Right now this is appears to be the only support that corn can find. I look for corn direction in the next two weeks to come from export or sales news in the wheat market until we get to the November S&D report on 11/8/18. Traders are anxiously looking to this report to see if the USDA reduces corn yield again. We should start to see private estimates released later this week.
Good harvest weather over the past week has traders estimating the corn crop is about 60% harvested which would be up from 49% last week.
Brazil looks to be on pace to increase first and second crop corn acres this year due to demand while the US is expected to see a large acreage shift from soybeans to corn next spring. If these two scenarios play out I believe producers should be aggressive sellers of next year’s crop before the US crop goes in the ground.

Be sure to join us on Tuesday 10/30/18 as Compeer Financial will be onsite from 11:00 -1:30 serving lunch.

We will be closing our scale at 3pm on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com