Good Morning,

Markets are mixed ahead of today’s USDA report. Trade is anticipating record corn and soybean yields that will increase stocks. Corn is down 1 and soybeans are up 2 as support levels are challenged in both commodities. Whether or not corn support levels hold will depend on the reaction to a potential nationwide yield around 182 bpa and a carryout that could increase another 150-200 million bushels.
Initially we may see trade react negatively to this report but longer term could see things stabilize if traders begin to question the impact of heavy rains the past couple weeks. We must remember that today’s numbers are from a survey that was completed on October 1st.

Estimates for today’s report:

USDA 2018/19 Production (billion bu)
USDA October Ave. Estimate USDA September
Corn Production 14.872 14.827
Corn Yield 181.8 181.3
Harvested Acres 81.72 81.80
Bean Production 4.733 4.693
Bean Yield 53.3 52.8
Harvested Acres 88.72 88.90

USDA Ending Stocks (billion bu)
USDA September Ave. Estimate USDA August
Wheat .950 .935
Corn 1.919 1.774
Soybeans .898 .845

Have as Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn saw some pre report positioning again yesterday and this morning as it closed down -.02 yesterday and is down 2 today. USDA progress report yesterday afternoon estimated corn harvested progress at 34% complete vs last week at 26%, compared to the year ago week at 21%.

• Wet weather continues to plague the corn belt but forecasts are calling for things to clear early tomorrow for a considerable stretch for most of the Midwest.
• The USDA October S&D report will be released Thursday at 11am. Private analysts are calling for a ½ to 1 bpa increase in both corn and bean yields from the USDA September report.
• India has stepped up to fill some of the void left by the trade war between China and the US. Indian exports to China have increased 53% from April thru August year on year.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weaker markets this morning with corn and beans both trading 3 lower to open the week. Last week the funds reduced their short position in corn by 75,000 contracts. The decrease in funds short position last week is outweighing the wet Midwest weather.
I look for the markets to establish a sideways pattern this week with the amount of short covering we have seen and expectation for bearish report on Thursday. We could see another round of short covering if the dryer forecast for the middle of this week gets pushed back any further.
Thursdays report will be the second to last update to corn and soybean forecasts until the final January report. Experts are calling for Thursday’s numbers to show a 1 bpa yield increase in both corn and soybeans.
Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making sales for December and January to core out bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making basis sales for March thru July at current levels. The later start to harvest is going to make this year’s new crop stretch further into the spring and summer months. This along with the large size of this crop will result in wider basis levels across the country.
Producers looking to move corn this fall should be making cash or basis sales to guarantee you have a spot to take your grain. With a smaller harvest window, space will be much tighter.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Weather finally appears to be getting the attention of traders as harvest delays continue across the Midwest. With forecasts for rain thru the middle of next week for the majority of the upper Midwest we are seeing the funds cover some of their long standing short positions. The concern over lost yield in soybeans and poor quality in corn due to the excessive rains has gained some momentum this week.
The funds have reduced their short corn position by 22,000 contracts in the last week. Soybeans shorts have only been reduced by 5,000 in the last week.
While we have seen and may see some more short covering with the weather premiums the size of this years crop does not appear that it is going to shrink enough to send the markets significantly higher. I look for this to be confirmed next week in the USDA’s October S&D report that will be released on Thursday. Private analysts are expecting both corn and soybeans to be higher than the USDAs September report by as much as 1 bpa on corn and beans.

Producers should take advantage of the recent rally by making small sales for December and January to core out there bins with prices in the $3.50-3.60 range. Producers should also be making small sales for the fall of 2019 with prices in the $3.70 range.

Have a Safe weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans are both up 1 to start the day. Export sales released this morning showed corn at 56 million bushel which is down from last week but well above the ten week average of 27 million. Soybean exports also came in at 56 million bushel which is significantly above the ten week average of 18 million.
Weekly ethanol production dropped for the second straight week to 1.015 million barrels per day compared to 1.036 last week and 1.051 the week before. It is still above this time last year. With most ethanol plants taking their fall shutdowns in late September thru mid October these drops are not only expected but needed to help reduce stocks.
The USDA S&D report will be released a week from today. Look for the traders to position themselves between now and then for any surprises. Private surveys will be released in the next few days with the expectation that many are looking for larger corn and soybean yields.

Reminder – All loads need to be scheduled prior to delivery.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com