Good Morning,

Steady markets to start the day after a bad week for the grains. Corn has traded lower 4 days this week losing 15 cents while soybeans have traded lower all 5 days this week losing 48 cents as of 830 am. There are several factors pressuring the markets this week, but here are the main ones:
1. Weather is favorable. Warm and wet weather across the Midwest has this crop off to one of the best starts in history.
2. Poor export numbers in soybeans and corn the last few weeks.
3. Political tensions between the US and several of our trade partners as trade wars escalate. China and Mexico are the largest.
An improved weather forecast that is trending cooler and wetter for the Midwest next week has been encouraging additional liquidation of long positions that traders hold. With the funds still long 113,00 corn and 60,000 soybean contracts and no major Midwest drought in the forecast I would expect more volatility in the coming weeks. Iowa, the #1 corn producing state (20% of US total) is off to a great start with 81% of the crop rated good/excellent.
There has been limited progress on the China trade negotiations, but President Trump plans to leave the G7 summit hours earlier than planned after a war of words broke out between him and the leaders of France and Canada over trade.
I don’t believe now is the time to be making sales of new crop, but would strongly advise producers to have firm offers in place. This market is very volatile and any rally we may see will be very short lived. Old crop offers should be in place as well, but at much lower levels than we were looking for two weeks ago. Next Tuesdays S&D report could add more pressure to the downside for commodities if we see larger inventories.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Wheat continues its run higher this morning while corn and soybeans trade 1 higher and 2 lower respectively. Weather issues in Russia and the plains of the US are supporting wheat. Meanwhile favorable US weather is pressuring US corn and soybeans.
Concerns over the size of South America’s crop seem to be depressed for now as trade believes that the US can outgrow any world supply problems.
Next Tuesday’s S&D report should show a lower Brazilian crop along with higher export numbers for corn which should offer some support to the markets. Soybean export projections are expected to drop which should continue to pressure the markets.
Weekly export sales came in slightly below the ten week average for corn at 33 million bushels. Soybeans continue to lag the ten week average at 6.1 million bushels for the week ending 5/31/18. The reduction in soybean sales to China has brought the export pace back to the USDA’s projected level. We are currently about 110 million bushels behind last year’s pace.

Do you have firm offers in with your buyers for old and new crop? Don’t wait until you are done with your planting, spraying, side dressing to get this done. “I didn’t have time to call” is not a good excuse. Marketing your grain is the most important part of running a successful operation. Take a minute today to call and talk to your buyer.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is up slightly this morning with technical indicators turning bullish and weather forecasts having some uncertainty in the 10-14 day range. Weather models agree that the 10 day forecasts show above average rainfall and moderate temperatures. Look for the risk premium that is currently in the market to hold until we get agreement on the 10-14 day outlook.
Yesterday morning China offered to purchase nearly $70 billion of US farm and energy products over a year if the Trump administration abandons threatened tariffs according to trade officials.
President Trump rejected an RFS deal allowing ethanol that is exported to be eligible for biofuel credits and allowing E-15 sales year round.
Summer weather is everything when it comes to final yield for corn. Rainfall and temperatures in June are a good preamble to Julys weather, which is the biggest driver of corn yield Long term studies indicate the weather in July is twice as important as June weather. With ample moisture and ideal temperatures in May and the start of June we have corn conditions close to all-time highs in the US. Below is a chart of the best week 21 Good/Excellent Corn condition ratings in the last 20 years. Note that a 178 yield in the US could offset any concerns arising about corn production around the world. With the potential for corn acres to be higher in the June 29th report this would reduce the concern even more.

Year G/E Rating in WK 21 Percent of Trend
2018 79 ?? 2018 trend + 178 bpa
2015 74 102.6
2010 76 100
2007 78 101.5
1999 75 99.5

There is a lot of growing season left, but we are currently off to one of the best starts in history. If weather remains adequate we could be looking at record crops for the third year in a row. Is your marketing plan prepared for prices we have seen the last couple years if carryout remains high? Historically the best prices received by producers are sales that are made 4-6 months in advance of the delivery timeframe. Give your buyer a call today to get caught up on sales and put offers in for the coming year.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Monday was a tough day in the commodity markets with every commodity closing double digits lower on the day. Corn was down 10, soybeans down 19 and wheat was down 18 on the day. Favorable US weather along with US and China trade negotiations stalling weighed heavily on the markets. The high pressure ridge that looked like it could move into the corn-belt as of last Friday, looks less likely to push as far East as originally forecasted.
Last night’s planting progress was reported at 97% complete vs. 95% on average. Crop conditions came in at 78% G/E compared to 71% on average. Weather will continue to be the market mover with the current trend lower as we get favorable temperatures and moisture.
Yesterday was a very weak close with CN8 breaking the 200 day moving average for corn and could signal additional selling today. Look for resistance near 3.85 CN8 and support near 3.75 CN8.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

When we left last Friday there was a potential ridge developing in the central plains that could have brought hot and dry conditions to the mid-west. It looks as of now that this ridge is not going to develop. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast looks mostly quiet the first half of this week before good rains look to fall mainly in the northern sections of the corn-belt. As always, weather is the driver in June and for now it is driving the markets lower.
The Trump administration is expected on Monday to announce changes in biofuels policies, including a plan to count ethanol exports toward federal biofuels usage quotas and allowing year-round sale of fuels with a higher blend of ethanol; the changes, expected to be outlined in a memorandum on Monday, will be subject to the federal rule-making process.
Soybean prices continue their downward trek on increased US/Chinese tensions over tariffs on US/Chinese goods. China threw out a warning against the US imposing tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese goods after weekend negotiations faltered.
This afternoons planting progress and crop conditions reports should be bearish the markets given last week’s weather.
Corn is down 6, soybeans are down 11 and wheat is down 14 to begin the week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com