Good Morning,

Yesterday’s USDA S&D numbers are in the books and did little to move the markets. Corn carryout was increased for both the 2017/18 and the 2018/19 harvest years. Soybeans were reduced in both with 2018/19 coming in well below the trade estimates. (charts below)
The markets are lower in all commodities this morning as traders discount yesterday’s reports and shift their focus back to weather and political factors. Despite some major delays in MN, ND, SD traders are looking at long term forecasts which show weather changes coming this weekend. Weather is also looking better for Argentina and Southern Brazil which should offer some much needed help.

17/18 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT 1.070 1.065 1.064
CORN 2.182 2.178 2.182
SOYBEANS .530 .541 .550

18/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT .955 .930 NA
CORN 1.682 1.628 NA
SOYBEANS .415 .535 NA

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

USDA monthly stock report comes out at 11am today. Market is currently trading even, corn is expected to have a reduction in ending stocks due to smaller planted acres. Also watch as Brazil and Argentine crops may show reduction on the global outlook.

Weather is looking to not be in the farmer’s favor thru the end of the week, with a hopeful window coming for planting early to mid-next week.

Estimates for tomorrow’s report:

17/18 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
Wheat average estimate: 1.065
Corn average estimate: 2.178
Soybeans average estimate: .541

18/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
Wheat average estimate: .930
Corn average estimate: 1.628
Soybeans average estimate: .535

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn and soybeans and wheat are all slightly lower this morning as traders look to remain neutral or remove some longs heading into tomorrow’s USDA S&D report. Estimates are for corn and wheat stocks to increase slightly while soybeans are expected to drop slightly from the April report. The USDA will also issue its first official estimate of US/World 2018-19 supply and demand. The trade is looking for lower corn carryout and higher soybean carryout.
Talk that China may not buy US soybeans for the remainder of the marketing year along with Chinese buyers canceling orders for US soybeans keeps the markets on edge.
The US Midwest weather forecast is unchanged as rains are seen moving through the middle of this week, then again over the weekend, and a third system the middle of next week.

Estimates for tomorrow’s report:

17/18 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT 1.065 1.064
CORN 2.178 2.182
SOYBEANS .541 .550

18/19 Ending Stocks (Billion Bu)
USDA MAY AVE. ESTIMATE USDA APRIL
WHEAT .930 NA
CORN 1.628 NA
SOYBEANS .535 NA

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard2didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Corn is currently up three after yesterday’s planting progress report came in ahead of expectations at 39% completed. This still comes in behind the five year average of 44%. Soybean progress is right on track at 15% as well.

Brazil’s second crop will be expected to drop after a reduction in planted acres, also drought in key producing areas. Beyond this global news, Trump will be announcing plans for the Iran Deal today. Watch for impact of these global events in coming days.

• The USDA will release its May crop production report on Thursday May 10th. This will be the first look at new crop balance sheets for wheat, corn and soybeans.
• Dryness continues in Southern Brazil but there is some rain forecasted in the 6-15 day forecasts.

Have a Great Day!

Mitch Giebel
920-348-6861
mgiebel@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Futures are starting the week lower as traders take some profit off of the table ahead of this week’s planting progress and stocks report. Tensions are growing after last week’s meeting between negotiations between the US and China proved largely unsuccessful at resolving the ongoing dispute. The US offered up a list of 8 demands that included a cut to the trade deficit by $200 Billion by 2020 and a cutback on government subsidies. For now the dialog will continue but the likelihood that the Trump administration is going to enforce the $50 Billion in tariffs on Chinese goods in late May or June is growing. China is likely to respond to those tariffs with a 25% duty on US soybeans of its own. Essentially, China already has an “embargo” of US beans in place. With China unable to land a cargo before the 25% duties start, it will most likely avoid new US soy purchases.
In other news:
• The USDA will release its May crop production report on Thursday May 10th. This will be the first look at new crop balance sheets for wheat, corn and soybeans.
• Dryness continues in Southern Brazil but there is some rain forecasted in the 6-15 day forecasts.
• This afternoons planting progress is estimated to come in at 37% complete compared to 17% last week and 44% for the five year average. Soybean planting is estimated to come in at 13% complete compared to 5% last week and 13% for the five year average. Weather towards the end of the week may not have been favorable for planting, but progress in the south was fast paced early in the week.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com