Corn was higher last week mainly due to a big rally on Monday based on US and Chinese news. Talk that the US and Iran were once again close to a deal mid-week brought the markets back into check to finish out the week. July futures ended the week 7 higher while December corn closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 261,342 corn contracts and long 189,037 soybean contracts.

Corn rebounded from the sharp losses the previous week as we received more details of what President Trump and Xi agreed on during their meeting began to surface. According to China’s commerce ministry, the two countries will pursue reciprocal tariff reductions and other measures aimed at boosting trade flows, including for agriculture. Beijing said negotiations are continuing over which products would receive tariff relief and how the reductions would be implemented.

The White House said China has also agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028 in addition to soybean purchases commitments that it made in October 2025. The $17 billion annual commitment would provide important support for major export sectors including corn, wheat, sorghum, ork, beef, poultry, dairy, cotton and ethanol related products (DDGS).

On Wednesday Chinese president Xi Jinping’s comments regarding the Iranian conflict pushed the markets lower. Xi stated that “A broad ceasefire is imperative; restarting the war is even more unacceptable, and engaging in negotiations is particularly important.” Traders took this as a sign of diminished support for Iran from its ally, China, to hasten the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of needed goods to China’s economy.

Short term the markets appear to be in a comfortable trading range given the stocks we are dealing with this year. But given the potential increase in biofuel demand around the world in the coming years, we could see additional support for the 2026 crop and beyond. While the US is still in the process of approving year-round E15 blending, the rest of the world is also increasing demand for ethanol. Vietnam launches its E10 mandate on June 1st. It projects that it will need 18 to 19 million gallons of ethanol to supplement its domestic output to make the E10 project a reality. That is about ¼ of what the US sends to its top destination (Canada) monthly. If Vietnam chooses the US as its main supplier, it could boost US exports by 10% and subsequently increase ethanol demand 1 to 1.5% annually. India is also launching an ethanol mandate that will double or triple its demand. India plans on using corn in the expansion of ethanol production as its feedstock. India is currently not a net importer/exporter of corn so they will either seek imported corn or choose ethanol imports to supplement its expanded ethanol program.

Corn planting progress came in at 76% complete as of last Sunday night (5/17/26), which was up 19% from the previous week and 6% ahead of the five-year average. Corn emergence is 39%, which is up 16% from last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average.

The market’s focus for the next few weeks will continue to be on the unknowns, US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months. There’s no way of knowing where this corn market might go, but I look for it to stay supported until we see the June planted acreage.

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There were a lot of potential news stories in the markets this past week but ultimately it was the lack of news that moved the market. A neutral to bullish USDA report, approval of E-15 and positive meetings between President trump and Xi were all positive. Ultimately the lack of any new business with China was what moved the markets lower to end the week. July corn ended the week 16 cents lower while December corn lost 13 cents. The funds ended the week-long 235,120 corn and long 161,023soybean contracts.

On Tuesday the USDA released their May WASDE. This report was considered bullish for wheat and soybeans while neutral for corn. For corn, USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet held few surprises. Production is forecast at 15.995 billion bushels, slightly above pre-report estimates at 15.948 billion bushels. National average yields are initially pegged at a weather-adjusted trend of 183.0 and are subject to change as the growing season advances. On the demand side of the balance sheet, exports are lowered by 150 million bushels from the 2025/26 crop year likely due to smaller expected production. While exports are projected to be lower than last season, if realized, this forecast would be the second largest on record. USDA also pegs feed and residual use down from prior year due to smaller supplies. Initial new-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.957 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from the 2025/26 season. This puts the stocks-to-usage ratio at 12.1% compared to 13.0% in 2025/26.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

On Wednesday the House of Representatives passed HB 1346 – which would allow year-round sales of E-15. This now must get through the Senate which will be a much steeper hill to climb. If approved this would gradually increase corn demand for fuel but would take time as additional infrastructure needs to be built and the consumer had to demand it before we would see any major demand.

The meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi went on as scheduled, but there was nothing new reported in terms of additional agriculture business. The markets were hoping for a glimpse of additional soybean business and potential new corn business but heard nothing. This resulted in corn, soybeans and wheat prices all seeing a dramatic decline on Thursday and Friday.

Corn planting progress came in at 57% complete as of last Sunday night (5/10/26), which was up 19% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 80% complete.

The market’s focus for the next few weeks will be on the two great unknowns. US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months.

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Corn ended the week on a positive note with some profit taking and more middle east conflict positioning ahead of the weekend. Despite a higher close on Friday, the markets ended the week lower and back below the $5 level. July corn ended 9 lower while December futures were down 6 cents. The funds are long 357,641 corn contracts and long 217,514 soybean contracts.

The Iran negotiations that sent the market lower on Wednesday following news that the US and Iran were “close to a deal” appeared to have fallen apart by Friday. Iran attacked two US warships in the Straight on Friday showing that they are not on the same page as President Trump when it comes to negotiation progress.

While the Iran conflict goes on, the Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled to go forward as planned this week. The bean market has been supported by this news recently and could offer support to corn longer term. I am still skeptical of any huge announcement with the Chinese coming directly from the meeting, but it will be positive the markets long term.

Weather was contusive to planting across most of the US Midwest this past week which should have resulted in progress well north of 50% complete in Monday afternoon’s report. Based on the 7-day forecasts, it looks like we have a window to advance in areas that have struggled with cool and wet conditions in the ECB. Overall, it looks like we will get the crop planted again this year.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their May WASDE. Estimates for this report are listed below. I don’t expect much movement in the markets due to these numbers, but most traders are anxious to get their first look at 2026/27 carryout projections.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Corn planting progress came in at 38% complete as of last Sunday night (5/3/26), which was up 13% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 60% complete.

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Do we finally have a Spring Rally? The corn market continued its move higher this past week with several different stories fueling the fire. From drought in the west to excessive rains in the mid-west and stronger crude oil prices everything was supportive. July corn ended the week 17 cents higher while December corn gained 15 cents. The funds ended the week long 274,572 corn and 185,910 soybean contracts.

Strength early in the week came on the heels of the wheat market that has been rallying due to drought conditions in the plains. The major wheat growing areas have continued to miss rain and crop conditions continue to deteriorate. As of last Monday, 70% of the US wheat growing areas were experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions. The only time it has been this high was in 2022 when we saw wheat rally to more than $12/bushel early in the year due to drought. When wheat prices rise, livestock producers shift to feeding cheaper corn, increasing demand and lifting corn prices. Below is a chart showing the correlation between wheat and corn on the CBOT.

Weather forecasts for the mid-west late in the week added some support to the markets as traders begin to hedge the possibility of corn planting delays. The next 10-day forecast calls for rain across the mid-west from a tenth to five plus inches.  Planting progress was ahead of pace in last Monday’s report, but rains last week slowed progress and could bring us back to average if not below in this afternoon’s report. While we are seeing some support, I personally think we need to get to the second week of May with major planting delays before the market pays serious attention. Larger planters and improved technology have significantly reduced the time it takes to get the crop planted. My concern is not that the acres get planted, but the fact that later planted crops in less-than-ideal conditions typically do not yield well.

The recent corn rally has been very impressive. December corn closed higher in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions while taking out contract highs. While it failed to close above $5 last week, it did trade as high as $5.0175 before settling at $4.9875 to end the week.

Corn planting progress came in at 25% complete as of last Sunday night (4/26/26), which was up from 11% last week and ahead of five-year average of 19%. Corn emergence was reported at 7%, which is up from 5% last year and 4% for the five-year average.

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Didion Weekly Market Recap

The corn markets saw another positive week of trading as demand remains strong and a slightly wetter week may slow planting progress. May and July corn ended the week 6 higher while December corn gained 7 cents on the week. The funds ended the week long 175,213 corn and long 182,573 soybean contracts.

Wet forecasts supported the corn market early in the week and then gave way to support from the wheat market. Wheat has had a couple strong weeks and is approaching recent highs due to the drought in the plains. If they continue to miss the rain we could see additional demand for corn in the west as a replacement for feed wheat later this summer.

July corn made its way back to $4.65 which is the midpoint of the last 2 months’ trading range. While I don’t expect the markets to trade significantly higher in old crop, it is impressive that we are back to these levels considering the carryout we are dealing with. For now it appears traders are going to add to their long positions until we see what happens in the middle east and how planting progress proceeds. The lack of farmer selling over the last couple weeks has helped the markets rally. If they were aggressively selling like we saw a month ago, the commercial elevators and end users would be putting on short hedges and negate the small rallies the fund traders have given us.

Corn planting progress came in at 11% complete as of last Sunday night (4/19/26) which was up from 5% last week and ahead of five-year average of 9%. Corn emergence was reported at 4%, which is up from 2% both last year and for the five-year average.

In my opinion, we do not have a story for delayed planting in the US at this point. There are some trying to pitch that idea, but it has not been a concern yet.  Monday’s crop progress report will be important to see what areas are starting to lag due to the recent rainfalls.  It may still not be a story that moves the market this week, but it will tell us where to watch to see if there will be a story in the later part of May.

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