Corn struggled to maintain positive trade last week as traders monitor harvest reports and position ahead of the upcoming Trump/Xi summit. December corn ended the week 3 cents lower while March and May ended the week 4 and 5 cents lower respectively. The funds closed the week long 393,460 corn and 229,001 soybean contracts.

Early yield reports coming out of the Midwest are variable, which isn’t creating confidence in a bigger crop. Historically early yield reports often come from the lower-yielding ground due to any number of issues that may have brought the crop to early maturity. Harvest has slowed in the western corn belt due to heavy rains. The Midwest will see active rains over the next several days but nothing that will affect the yield at this stage.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected Sept. 24 summit in Washington is shaping up around reciprocal tariff reductions and an extension of the trade truce. China’s Commerce Ministry has confirmed negotiations on tariff relief covering $30 billion of goods from each country. For U.S. agriculture, the implications extend beyond another purchase announcement as lower Chinese duties could make American commodities more competitive with Brazilian supplies and create a pathway for Chinese commercial firms to re-enter the U.S. ag market.

Harvest progress remained slightly ahead of the five-year average at 8% completed last week. Expect things to be slower in the next two weeks as rain hampered progress across most of the mid-west.

While early yield reports are coming in all over the place, most of them are below last year’s records. This could add support to the markets long term if demand remains strong. Harvest pressure should keep things in check over the next 30-45 days. As I stated last week, there is a gap in the charts at $5.09 in the December contract that remains intact. I don’t know how quickly it will happen, but I do expect to fill the gap before coming back to current or higher levels.

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Corn closed lower for the first time in five weeks following a USDA report that was in line with expectations.

December and March corn ended the week 6 cents lower while May closed 7 cents lower on the week. The funds ended the week long 412,459 corn contracts and long 245,258 soybean contracts.

The September WASDE report released on Friday was in line with trade estimates resulting in spec traders taking profits. The national yield fell 2.2 bushels/acre to 178.5 due to larger yield reductions in the western states. (ND, SD, NE, CO and KS) On the demand side, exports were left unchanged, but Feed and residual use decreased by 150 million bushels to 5.950 billion bushels. Net-ending stocks were down 86 million bushels and are currently projected at 1.567 billion bushels.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Harvested Acreage (Million Acres)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Harvest progress came in ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Look for harvest progress to push north in the coming weeks as favorable weather pushes the crop to the finish line.

With harvest pressure building, the funds extreme length and another USDA report a couple weeks out, I am looking for some weakness in the markets. (Provided we don’t see geopolitical support) There is a gap in the charts from 3 eeks ago that remains intact. If this market is going to remain supported or move higher, we are going to need more fund support. Setting the markets back 20-25 cents would allow the funds to make some profits and allow others to buy back in. I don’t know how quickly it will happen, but I do expect CZ26 to fill the gap at $5.09 before coming back to current or higher levels. Remember my stat from last weeks letter, “December corn futures have never posted a high in September.” The USDA’s latest estimate puts the stocks to use ratio at 9.7% which is supportive of $5.50 CBOT prices.

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The markets put the brakes on their rally last week as traders headed for a three-day weekend. With a USDA report on the 11^th, the funds long position and a chance for peace talks in the Black Sea region trade was light to end the week. December corn ended the week unchanged awhile March and May futures finished 1 and 3 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 394,003 corn contracts and long 244,920 soybean contracts.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said U.S. negotiators visited Kyiv and Moscow over the weekend to discuss the war, although no major breakthroughs have been seen with the visit. This is the second time Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have gone over to try and end the war, the last being in February.  Despite the talks and outside efforts toward peace, Russia & Ukraine strikes continue.

This Friday the USDA will release its September Crop Production report. I am not expecting this report to have any significant changes but would not be surprised if they lowered corn yield by a bushel or two from their August report. The USDA’s August report put yield at 180.7 bushels per acre. I feel like the market is currently trading at 178 bushel per acre, so any estimate above this level is probably neutral to bearish the market.

With the next quarterly Grain Stocks report out at the end of the month, the USDA most likely will not touch the current feed/residual usage estimate until the October WASDE report, once the results of the Grain Stock report are available. This is the number that has the potential to add significant bushels to our carryout. The USDA is currently using 6.350 billion bushels as its estimated. This is an 896-million-bushel increase from last year, while combined major livestock numbers (cattle on feed, hogs, broilers) over the corn marketing year are essentially flat from a year ago. In my opinion we could easily see 200 million bushels back on the balance sheet which changes our stocks/use ratio significantly.

Harvest progress ratings remain ahead of pace for corn doughing (92%), denting (62%) and maturity (13%).

I look for the markets to soften a bit this week ahead of the USDA report and stabilize over the next month or so as we digest field reports. Interestingly, December corn futures have never posted a high in September, and soybeans have only done it once (2012). Could this be the year?

Markets are volatile and we appear to trade more on comments than fundamentals. It took one headline from Putin to break the wheat market 30 cents! That’s what we’re dealing with here, and who knows what the next comment or tweet may bring.

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Reports from multiple crop tours (Pro Farmer being the largest) over the past week continue to indicate a crop that is not as big as last year and below the USDA’s current evaluation. Adding to the bullish news were reports that Russia was looking to intensify its attacks. The net result was a corn market that closed 28 cents higher in the December and March contracts while May closed 27 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 407,448 corn contracts and long 250,679 soybean contracts. This is the longest position the funds have held in corn since February 2025. Their current long position puts them in the 98^th percentile over the last year (98% of the time they have been below this level), indicating that a correction is in play.

Mid last week reports surfaced that Russia and Ukraine were in talks, but those talks fell apart or hit a dead end. The sources claimed that Russia was contemplating intensifying its ballistic missile attacks on the capitol and other vulnerable infrastructure in other cities. Russia is the worlds largest exporter of wheat while Ukraine is the worlds fourth largest exporter of corn. The possibility of losing millions of bushels of exports from either side pushed funds to add to their longs. The funds added over 80,000 contracts of corn, 40,000 soybeans and 25,000 contracts of soybeans following that news.

Harvest progress ratings remain ahead of pace for corn doughing (86%), denting (45%) and maturity (6%).

Many private analysts are predicting corn will trade above $6 per bushel. While there’s always the possibility, I’m not sure the market advances much further from here without some fundamental news. Prices should start to level out here as the funds are extremely long at this point. War rallies can be taken away quickly as we’ve seen in the past and we are still just speculating on the crop size as it will be several months before we know the final number. I would not be surprised to see the USDA make a small adjustment to yield in its September 11^th report but caution any bulls that demand could easily be ratcheted down to bring ending stocks to a comfortable level.

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Corn futures doubled down with another 20 cent gain this past week as bullish news from the crop tour fueled the rally. September corn closed 25 cents higher on the week while December and March ended the week 26 and 25 cents higher respectively. The funds are now long 249,692 corn contracts and long 176,782 soybean contracts.

The Pro Farmer crop tour wrapped up on Thursday after making stops in SD, NE, OH, IN, IL, IA and MN last week. Of the 7 states they visited, they found smaller yields than last year in all of them and smaller yields that the USDA’s August report in 6 of the 7 states. (MN was higher) Pro Farmers final yield came in at 173.2 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre. Pro Farmers production was estimated at 15.344 billion bushels compared to the USDA’s 16.013. Using the USDA’s demand base estimates would create a carryout of 986 million bushels. A number this low would result in higher markets and result in rationing.

While Pro Farmer painted a bullish outlook for the markets, the USDA historically comes in higher on yield and production. The chart below shows the coloration between the Pro Farmer and USDA August, September and Final numbers. In the last 20 years the USDA’s final yield was higher than the Pro Farmer estimate.

Harvest progress in the southern states has been under way for a few weeks, but we are a couple weeks away from the USDA reporting the progress. 29% of the crops were reported as dented compared to 25% on average.

We made new highs in every new crop contract month except for September this past week. Given the fact that Pro Farmers’ final yield was not released until the markets closed on Friday, I would expect the market to have strength early in the week before some profits are taken. 20-25 cents above Fridays close is my new ceiling for all new crop months.

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