Good morning,

This morning corn is down 1 and soybeans are down 2.

US corn and bean carryout were left the same yesterday and wheat moved up to 598 vs 568 a month ago.  Argentina corn production dropped from 40 mmts down to 37 mmts and bean were dropped from 33 to 27 mmts.  Brazil corn held steady at 125 and beans up 1 mmt at 154 mmt.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 World Carryout (million tonnes)

The Russians said the Black Sea grain deal “could not stand on one leg” and that the outlook for the agreement “is not good”, continuing to note obstacles for Russian agriculture and fertilizer exports. Meanwhile, Romanian farmers are threatening to begin a nationwide protest on June 7 unless the country bans Ukrainian grain imports and transit. UKR Railways has also suspended cargo transportation to Poland until further notice, including wheat & grains.  Russia wants the SWIFT banking system opened up and sanctions dropped.  Their old crop export window is closing as most of what they needed to sell has been moved out at a record pace.  They won’t need to move much grain until the winter wheat crop arrives early this summer.

US weather looks good for planting over the next week.  A warmup until the weekend when some light showers develop around the Midwest. More rain has been added to the weekend totals of .25-1 inch with about 50% coverage.  Next week will be on the cool side.  

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 2 and soybeans are up 18 to open the day as traders await the 11am crop report. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA 2022/23 World Carryout (million tonnes)

Corn planting progress came in at 3% complete yesterday afternoon, up from 2% last week, last year, and on average. Spring wheat plantings were initially reported at 1% complete, down from 6% last year and 4% on average. Winter wheat heading rose just a point to 7%, still ahead of 5% LY and 4% on average, with ratings of the crop down a point this week to 27% good/ excellent, below 32% last year and the 47% 5YA figure.  These are the worst ratings for hard wheat from back to 1996.

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 9, soybeans down 10 and wheat unchanged.

The initial U.S. Crop Progress Report for the spring showed winter wheat ratings falling from 34% to 28% good/excellent, down from 30% last year and the 43% five-year average. There is a risk of abandonment in wheat acres if rain doesn’t start to fall. Corn planting matched last year and the 5YA at 2% done.

StoneX Brazil estimated 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production at a record 157.7 MMT this month, up three million tonnes from last month; total corn production rose from 130.6 to 131.3 MMT, despite second-crop corn being down from 100.8 to 100.5 MMT this month.

Snow is falling in the Dakotas and Minnesota with up to a foot expected to be dumped on this region that is already sitting with a historically large snowpack for this time of year. Temps are expected to warm up for the region after the snow event over the next several days. By the end of next week, they are expecting highs in the 70’s. The planting intentions report showed farmers in this area intending to plant more corn, but if conditions hinder planting, we could see a shift to soybeans. Next week’s weather forecast coming true should keep planting intentions unchanged.

Reminder there are no markets on Friday April 7^th.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Grain markets opened higher this morning with corn currently up 4, soybeans up 14 and wheat up 5.

As for the USDA crop report on Friday the bean and corn stocks both came in bullish.  The smaller stocks were likely due to smaller crops instead of increased demand.  The acres report brought back about 6 million acres of production into the planting figure.  Corn acres were almost 92 million, beans at 87.5 million and all wheat at 49.855 million.  Soybeans are the same as last year, while wheat and corn acres are up.  We have struggled with preventative plant the last few years, and these are the missing acres that want to come back to corn and wheat. None of this is surprising and most anyone would have guessed as much.  Now it’s a question of whether these acres can get planted.  The Delta has been wet and the North has been cold and snowy.  For what it’s worth these acres forecast would have a new crop carryout of about 1,800 million bushels in corn, 200 million in beans and 575 million in wheat.

OPEC announced that they will cut oil production back by 1.16 million barrels a day.  This is the largest price movement in a year in crude oil and the cut was not expected.  Biden is obviously not happy about the change as the US has released the vast majority of the strategic reserve.  Petroleum reserves are the lowest since the 80’s and add up to only 19 days of use.

Reminder there will be no markets on Friday April 7^th.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Report Day!! Today is the big day for the March Planting Intentions Report.  This report has created some strong moves in the market on the day of and the week after.  Believe it or not, this report has been bullish for corn more often than not.  The stocks report is also a driver as the USDA measures how fast corn, soy and wheat use.

As for acres, I think we see a close to 50/50 split between corn and bean acres.  I think this is what the survey will say, not actually the way it will turn out.  There have been prevent plant acres for corn that are going to find a way back into production.  Also, it seems like inputs are easier to get and are more affordable.  Many producers think they have a better chance to make money growing corn.  I think the final number for corn will end up being larger than today’s figures baring good planting weather.

US Planted Acres (million acres)

March 1^st Stocks (million bushels)

Check back after 11:00 am for the numbers.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com