Good morning,

Grain markets opened lower this morning with corn down 6 and soybeans down 2.

Harvest pressure and a strong US dollar are keeping things steady to lower following last weeks USDA report. While this years US crop may not be as big as many were hoping for, the US export business continues to lag.

The weather in Brazil and Argentina is wet in Brazil and turning that way in Argentina.  US corn is 1 dollar higher than Brazilian making it the most overpriced corn in the World.  Supplies are short in the US, but the harvest is coming in and yields have been highly variable.  It looks like we are caught in a range for the foreseeable futures with the Funds already long a lot of corn.

Ukrainian President Zelensky yesterday said exports following the grain export agreement have totaled around 8 MMT, aboard 300 ships. Exports over the first 17 days of October were 2.12 MMT, down only slightly from 2.17 MMT last year. Cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 10.8 MMT, versus 16.5 MMT last year, including 3.99 MMT of wheat and 5.88 MMT corn.

Russia has intensified military assault over the weekend releasing drones.  The efforts were aimed at food storage facilities.  This has the wheat market up this morning.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are relatively quiet to start the day with corn down 5 and soybeans up 3. Traders will most likely wait for Wednesday’s report before adding or reducing their positions.

Estimates for Wednesday’s report or listed below.

US Production (Billion Bushels/bushels per acre)

US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

A majority of nearly 12,000 railroad maintenance workers yesterday voted to reject a labor plan suggested by President Biden; there are a dozen unions in total that will be voting on the deal or risk going on strike.  A new bargaining period has begun and will end November 19th.  Barge freight on the Illinois and Mississippi have soared on the low water levels.  Barge rates were in the 500% of tariff rate but are down between 2000 and 2500.  It’s a good time for the railroads to use leverage.

I would have 7 dollar sell orders in as I said last week and also some at 7.20-7.25 for the Crop Report tomorrow.  I think it’s another good rally, which can be built on again tomorrow with bullish input by the USDA.

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is up 6 and soybeans are up 16 overnight as traders continue to position ahead of Wednesdays WASDE report and on news out of the Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces destroyed the only bridge connecting the previously annexed Crimea with the Russian mainland which angered President Putin and renewed concerns that the war is only escalating. This puts Black Sea exports in jeopardy as a key UKR chess piece and subsequently has the trade on edge to open the week.

Ukraine reported that 20 ships carrying grain had left the ports of Odesa over the weekend, bringing the total to almost 300 since the start of the joint exporting agreement that was signed on July 22.

The USDA will release their October production report on Wednesday. Traders are expecting a downward revision which is supporting the markets near term.

Estimates for Wednesday’s report or listed below.

US Production (Billion Bushels/bushels per acre)

US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

This afternoon’s harvest progress report should show good progress as weather was favorable for soybean and corn harvest across the Midwest. Temperatures will be warm early in the week before dropping to freeze levels again on Thursday night.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-3486844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets are quiet to start the day with corn up 1 and soybeans down 3. Look for quiet trade today as we head into the weekend where harvest activity should be busy.

Next Tuesday’s USDA October Crop Production report revisions to the U.S. corn and soybean crops could have significant price ramifications if “surprises” are seen in either direction. With the historically tight corn and soybean balance sheets, heightened risk awareness heading into next week’s reports is paramount.

The USDA’s October 12 WASDE report could have/likely will have a two-fold fundamentally friendly impact on the 2022/23 U.S. corn balance sheet. Not only will USDA be lowering 2022/23 beginning stocks by 148 million bushels from last month as a result of the September 30 Grain Stocks report, but their current 13.944 billion bushel (172.5 bushel/acre) estimate of this year’s crop is likely to be lowered further, as well. Accordingly, with USDA’s 2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate already sitting near perceived minimum pipeline stocks of around 1.2 billion bushels, any reduction in supplies likely will prompt a comparable reduction in demand, as well.
So far, U.S. corn export sales are running at a rather slow pace with total commitments of only 521 million bushels vs 1.046 billion at this time last year, the fourth lowest of the last ten years as of late September and represent 23% of the USDA’s current 2.275 billion bushel export projection. With any additional cuts to production and carryout we will see prices tick higher which will result in less demand for US corn. Stocks may be tight, but high prices cure high prices!

Have a safe day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is currently down 2 and soybeans are up 5 to start the week. Corn initially opened 9 higher, but quickly sold off as physical traders took over the computer trade.

Friday’s stocks report came in bullish for corn and wheat, while bearish for beans.  Even though there were premiums for early harvested corn not enough was completed to comingle stocks.  There probably was some comingling of bean stocks in the south, but the lack of exports over the past 6 months also didn’t help.  Bean stocks grew by 30 million bushels.  The price action from Friday was pretty violent as beans were down 40 on the day, when many were looking for a bullish report.  Corn made a run at 7.00 December futures but ran out of gas as beans liquidated.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers is discussing output cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), OPEC sources said, and voluntary cuts by individual members could come on top of that, making it the largest cut since 2020.  The meeting will take place on Oct. 5 against a backdrop of falling oil prices and months of severe market volatility which prompted top OPEC+ producer, Saudi Arabia, to say the group could cut production.  This has crude oil up over 350 dollars a barrel this morning.

A rally in crude oil should bode well for corn but may not last long. I would recommend having offers in place for fall sales that need to be made. $6.50 with a top of $7.00 is my guess today. There is a lot of bearish news on the export side that is going to keep a lid on the markets.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com