Daily Insights

October 15, 2021

Good morning,

Corn is up 9 and soybeans are up 10 to start the day.

Rumors that China has bought 10-15 cargos of soybeans of the US Gulf is circulating this morning that has soybeans leading the charge this am. Weekly export sales were solid with corn and soybeans coming within expectations. US prices still remain competitive in the world markets, but are not the best as of this morning. Higher markets will continue to make the US less attractive going forward which may keep a lid on prices into the spring/summer.

Weather risk premiums have shifted back to Brazil as they start their new crop cycle. If they fail to have weather concerns this corn market has the potential to drop another 40-50 cents in the next month with US harvest pressure. I don’t think we trade that low, but we have to realize the risk is there.

Have a safe day and Happy Harvesting!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

October 14, 2021

Good morning,

Corn and soybeans are both unchanged to start the day. The corn market was down sharply again yesterday as traders continued the selloff following Tuesday’s report.

Following Tuesday’s report there are several traders and analysts that feel the final US soybean crop size could increase and that demand for corn and soybeans could drop from USDA expectations. Harvest pressure along with favorable South American weather will continue to weigh on US prices. Long term I look for soybeans to be the leader in the markets and at this point would expect that direction to be lower. Better yields, lower demand and expectations for a larger South American crop all point to beans heading lower.

Traders will be watching the ethanol production report later this morning to see if we get another solid number after last week’s production of 978K barrels per day.

 

Reminder that Compeer Financial will be onsite today serving bag lunches from 11am-1:30pm.

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

October 12, 2021

Good morning,

Markets are weaker this morning with corn down 6 and soybeans down 9 as we await the USDA report at 11am. Trade estimates are listed below.

USDA 2021 Yield (bu/acre)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 176.5 176.0 176.3
Soybeans 51.5 51.1 50.6

 

 

USDA 2021 Production (billion bushel)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 15.019 14.973 14.996
Soybeans 4.448 4.415 4.374

 

 

USDA 2021/22 Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 1.500 1.432 1.408
Soybeans .320 .300 .185

 

 

In addition to this report at 11, we will have export inspections and harvest progress released today.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

October 11, 2021

Good morning,

Markets are 3 higher in corn and 9 lower in soybeans to start the week.

Today is Columbus Day, so there will be no reports released today but we will have a big data dump tomorrow. Tomorrow we will have the USDA Production and Supply/Demand report, export inspections and harvest progress all released. The average estimate for tomorrow’s production report are listed below:

USDA 2021 US Yield (bu/acre)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 176.0 176.3
Soybeans 51.1 50.6

 

USDA 2021 US Production (billion bushel)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 14.973 14.996
Soybeans 4.415 4.374

 

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (billion bushels)

USDA Oct Average Estimate USDA September
Corn 1.432 1.408
Soybeans .300 .185

 

Now that the 2020/21 balance sheets are complete (September 30th report), the markets can focus on the new crop situations. The size on the 2021/22 crop continues to be debated. Yield reports are all over the board locally and across the Midwest. Some traders are anticipating the yield in Tuesday’s report to be higher than the USDA’s estimate last month of 176.3 bushels/acre, while others doubt this is possible given the crop conditions. The lower yield argument is supported by crop condition ratings that remained modestly below last year’s levels that were the second lowest of the last nine years. (Last year’s yield was 171.4 bushel/acre)

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

October 4, 2021

Good morning,

Corn is up 4 and soybeans are down 3 as we start the week.

The lead story this morning is about trade talks with China.  U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Monday will seek new talks with China over its failure to keep promises made in a “Phase 1” trade deal struck with former president Donald Trump, but will not pursue “Phase 2” negotiations over Beijing’s state subsidies and other structural issues.

Senior Biden administration officials said Tai will pursue a virtual meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to discuss the trade deal “soon” while starting a “targeted” process to revive exclusions for certain Chinese imports from punitive U.S. tariffs.  Tai will deliver long-awaited remarks outlining the Biden administration’s China trade strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank, at 10 a.m. EDT.  The coronavirus pandemic hit Chinese purchases of U.S. goods hard, and they have been running at only 62% of the target, according to estimates by Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Trade issues with China and better than expected bean yields have the bean market lower again this morning. China is on holiday, so any increased buying may be limited. The Funds are long corn again and long very few beans.  The wheat market is caught in the middle with a small net long.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com