December 27, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are higher as we start the week with corn up 4 and soybeans up 18.
The forecast for South American weather is still hot and dry this morning. The next 10 days will see limited rainfall in Southern Brazil and Argentina. The long-range forecast has a breakdown of the high-pressure ridge, temps will cool down some but not totally go away. This looks like a significant change for temps in Argentina, but there isn’t very much rain developing.
The current forecast is bullish for South America, but the long-range has a chance for a significant change. This isn’t a forecast the market would normally rally on. The longer the Funds get in beans, the more the volatility can increase. The funds are very long corn positions, which make that market very crowed if they must move to the exit door.
South American weather will be the driver as we close out the year and head into the January crop report. Weather can be a very tricky market mover as we have all seen in the past. Forecasts move the market long before the actual weather which increases volatility. I would suggest being proactive in any old and new crop corn and soybeans sales you have to make; this weather will be changing.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 23, 2021
Good morning,
Overnight the markets were softer but have opened 3 higher in corn and 2 higher in soybeans. I look for an unchanged to slightly higher close today as traders head into a 3-day weekend with the holidays.
The Funds are taking notice of the weather in South America and buying. The bean position can get a lot larger in coming weeks as last year they peaked out at 270,000 long contracts with a 16-dollar price on January 12th. If South American weather stays bullish, this could go for a while. Corn hit 6 dollars yesterday but struggled to get there and will be difficult to keep there without support from the bean markets. The Funds are long a lot of corn!
The forecast for South American weather is like yesterday’s run with very heavy rain in Northern Brazil. Some areas are going to see a foot of rain in the next week. Southern Brazil and Argentina look to be dry with almost zero chance of rain in the next 10 days. This is the forecast they trade, and it is still bullish this morning.
Reminder there are no markets on Friday!
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 22, 2021
Good morning,
Markets opened higher this morning with corn up 5 and soybeans up 20 as traders add premium to the markets with hot and dry forecasts for Southern Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks.
Soybean crops in Parana, one of Brazil’s largest-producing states, were rated lower for a third straight week due to hot, dry weather, according to figures on the state’s rural economics agency website. 57% of crops were rated good on Dec. 20, down from 71% a week earlier and 78% a year ago,13% of crops rated poor vs 6% in the previous report. 71% of Parana’s soy are flowering or at grain filling stages, during which it is more susceptible to drought losses.
The forecast for South American weather is a little different from yesterday with very wet weather in North and Eastern Brazil, 2-12 inches. Southern Brazil and Argentina have moved into a bone-dry weather pattern. The chance of a change in weather on the longer-term map has vanished this morning, showing a continuation of the doom out at least 15 days. The hot air mass looked like it might retrograde, but this morning it looks more intense. This a very bullish weather pattern. You will see the intense heat of 90’s-100’s in the bottom map for South America.
The funds are driving the prices higher based on weather and that could continue for the next few days. Once the weather forecast changes, and it will, things will drop back off to last weeks levels. I would advise producers to take advantage of this late December rally to get some old and new crop sales on the books. I would also advise putting offers in above the market with your buyers. Some of these rally’s change quickly with new forecasts being released and you don’t want to miss out.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 20, 2021
Good morning,
Markets opened mixed this morning with corn down 2 and soybeans up 6.
We are seeing some strength/support in the bean markets with weather concerns in southern Brazil and Argentina as they have limited if any rainfall over the next two weeks. Rumors of Argentina limiting export for corn continue to be discussed by their government. Roughly 10% of Argentina’s crop is stressed with 86-87% of the corn and soybean crop rated in the Good/Excellent category. The area under stress is expected to expand to at least 40% in the next two weeks in Argentina with no rain.
March futures continue to push the $5.95 level but so far have failed to close above it. We have been in a slight upward trend as the March futures have had a higher close in 9 of the last 13 trading sessions.
Spreads on the CBOT continue to disappear as the funds continue to buy the front months due to volume and liquidity. We have also seen basis levels widen over the past several weeks well into the summer months as end users continue to get covered up in the front months. Several end users across the Midwest have pulled bids until May/June timeframe as producers lock in sales.
I do not look for the markets to do a lot this week with them being closed on Friday and limited participants as the week rolls along due to holiday travel.
Reminder that there will be no markets on Friday December 24th.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 14, 2021
Good morning,
Limited news in the marketplace this morning is not giving traders any direction. The markets started off slow this morning with corn up 2 and soybeans up 10. They have since gained some momentum and are up 6 and 15 respectively. I would expect a lot more of this over the next couple weeks as we see traders position themselves for year end and the January 12th report. South American weather and the January 12 report are the only true market movers at the time.
Yesterday’s weakness was due to good rains in Southern Brazil and Argentina over the weekend. The forecast for the next couple weeks is warmer and drier for those areas which should be very beneficial following the rains and planting progress.
I would advise growers to be putting in firm offers and locking in profits for your 2021 and 2022 crop. The better the weather in South America and the closer we get to their crop coming off (March) the harder it is going to be to rally this market. Producers can lock in $5.20-$5.25 levels for next fall delivery and it should be done.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
