September 1, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are lower to start the day with corn and soybeans down 12 and 17 respectively.
Several things are pressing the markets the last few days.
- The longs are liquidating their positions.
- Hurricane Ida is putting pressure on the exports after damaging terminals in LA.
- New crop harvest pressure.
- Covid -Delta variant
All of these are giving the bears reason to move the markets lower and are doing it at a rampant pace. Things may stabilize in the future, but trade appears to be headed lower until one or all of these are resolved.
Three days after the Category 4 hurricane came ashore, more than a million homes and businesses remained without electricity on Wednesday and power utility Entergy Corp warned it may take weeks to restore service in some areas where transmission towers lay in crumpled heaps of metal. The electrical power company is reporting that 216 stations and more the 2,000 miles of transmission lines are without service. Electrical crews from nearby states are making way for New Orleans to help put up towers and lines in order to restore power. The wind damage was estimated to be worse than Katrina, knocking out more trees and towers. (Reuters)
The Cargill elevator damaged by Hurricane Ida in Reserve, Louisiana is responsible for nearly 9% of America’s bulk seaborne exports of corn, soybeans and wheat so far in 2021, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
USDA shipments show a total of 6.45 million tons of agricultural product loaded at the Cargill terminal, with 5.3 million tons of corn topping the list. The primary recipient of crops through the elevator this year has been China, receiving 47% of its output including 2.5 million tons of corn and 485,000 tons of soybeans.
The 7 day forecast looks much the same as yesterday with rain setting up in the West Central US. Amounts will be up to 3 inches in the heaviest areas. This rain event shows up on Friday and Saturday of this week, after which a ridge sets up from Texas North. Its not a big ridge, and temps will warm up in the Western US and leave the East at below normal temps.
Have a safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 25, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are quieter this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans down 4.
The 10 day rain forecast for the Midwest has rain of up to two inches for Iowa and heavier amounts seen in Minnesota of up to 3-4 inches. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are on the dry side. Some rain fell in Northern Illinois last night, parts of Central Illinois saw pop up showers. The 7 day forecast by NOAA is a little wetter than what the EU is showing. Temps will warm up out West to very hot levels again. We will see some 90’s in Illinois, but the East continues the trend as cooler than the Western Plains.
If the weather matters, it would be viewed as bearish with rains falling in Iowa and parts of Illinois. Crops are pretty far along with all the heat we saw this year and we had one of the earliest planting dates in years. China has been showing up for bean purchases just about every day since the beginning of August. They still have many cargoes to buy which will underpin the bean market on breaks. There isn’t a big story to drive prices higher. The Fund position in corn and beans has mostly been the same in August. Look for the markets to be choppy heading towards the end of the month.
Early yield reports out of Southern IL are strong with 221 bpa being reported yesterday in Bond County IL. This producer is expecting to break his farm record this year. His APH is in the 180’s.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 24, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are firm this morning with corn up 7 and soybeans up 30 to start the day.
The USDA found 60% of U.S. corn acres to be in good to excellent condition, down 2% from a week prior in a move that slightly surprised analysts. Average trade guesses for weekly corn ratings had hovered at 61% leading up to yesterday’s report. Last year this is the week that corn conditions started their decline from 69% G/EX to 64% and eventually falling to 60% by September 14th due to a dry August and the derecho in IA.
Soybean condition ratings fell 1% lower on the week, with 56% of the crop now remaining in good to excellent condition. The condition downgrade was in line with expectations, so early morning price gains were limited on the news of lower soybean ratings. Soybean maturation rates also continue to accelerate faster than historical averages amid variable growing conditions across the country. For the week ending August 22, 97% of the crop was blooming and another 88% was setting pods, about 1% ahead of the five-year average.
The 10-day forecast is almost identical to yesterday’s run. Heavy rains are forecast to fall in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio will stay dry into the end of the month. Finishing rains are not forecast for this area and yields are expected to shrink slightly. Most crops are well into maturity, so weather isn’t as big a deal anymore. Temps will heat up out West again also advancing maturity.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 23, 2021
Good morning,
Markets look to start the week higher led by soybeans and wheat. Corn is up 1 and soybeans are up 8 to start the week.
Friday, we saw sharp losses due to the headlines from the EPA recommending the Biden administration to lower 2021 biofuel mandates below the 2020 levels. The Environmental Protection Agency is set to send a draft of biofuel-blending quotas to the White House for review as soon as Friday afternoon, marking a key step in the Biden administration’s bid to balance competing oil and agricultural interests.
EPA officials have advised lawmakers and industry stakeholders that White House review of the plan is imminent, setting the stage for the agency to formally propose how much renewable fuel must be mixed into gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2022 within weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some lawmakers have been told to expect relatively unchanged requirements — and even a slight reduction is possible — which could be a blow to producers of corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel, according to one of the people.
Friday also saw the Pro Farmer Tour final yield estimates with corn at 177 bpa compared to the August USDA estimate of 174.6 bpa. The tour estimated soybean yield at 51.2 bpa compared to the August USDA’s 50.0 bpa.
Weekend rains fell in ND, MN, and IA while the eastern Midwest missed out on meaningful totals. The seven-day forecast has rains targeted for MN and WI while the eastern belt continues to be shortchanged. Traders will start to shift their focus from weather to demand as we move into September.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
August 20, 2021
Good morning,
Markets are down again this morning as corn starts the day out 9 lower and soybeans 14 lower.
Prices got hit hard yesterday as chart related selling rolled things lower in corn, beans and wheat. Those types of clean outs happen from time to time and end up creating a long-term market lows. There still looks to be some issues this morning dealing with the wreckage created across all markets yesterday. This may take another day or two to air out, but the break should be slower than it was yesterday.
Pro Farmer IA corn yield at 191 vs 178 ly and USDA 193. IA soybean pod count 1,217 vs 1,146 ly. Pro Farmer MN corn yield 177 vs 195 ly and USDA 166. MN soybean pod count 1,027 vs 1,085 ly. Pro Farmer is confirming the lower yields in Minnesota, and was surprisingly low for Illinois, where a record crop is expected. From all the pictures coming in from the tour crop maturity is ahead of schedule. Early plant dates and heat this summer have really moved this crop along. Historically Pro Farmers yields are well below the USDAs August and final numbers, so this should not come as a surprise. What should be a concern for producers is how much higher Pro Farmer yields are compared to last year.
Look for a bumpy trade today as the charts are a mess and more rain is on the way. Traders are fearful as always of Covid. I don’t think that the market would go into wholesale liquidation and have the funds get out of all of their positions, but Covid can make anything happen.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
